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PyMC3
PyMC (formerly known as PyMC3) is a Python (programming language), Python package for Bayesian statistical modeling and probabilistic machine learning which focuses on advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational fitting algorithms. It is a rewrite from scratch of the previous version of the PyMC software. Unlike PyMC2, which had used Fortran extensions for performing computations, PyMC relies on Theano (software), Aesara, a Python library that allows to define, optimize, and efficiently evaluate mathematical expressions involving multi-dimensional arrays. From version 3.8 PyMC relies on ArviZ to handle plotting, diagnostics, and statistical checks. PyMC and Stan (software), Stan are the two most popular probabilistic programming tools. PyMC is an Open-source software, open source project, developed by the community and fiscally sponsored by NumFOCUS. PyMC has been used to solve inference problems in several scientific domains, including astronomy, epidemiology, molecular bio ...
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ArviZ
ArviZ ( ) is a Python package for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. When working with Bayesian models there are a series of related tasks that need to be addressed besides inference itself: * Diagnoses of the quality of the inference, this is needed when using numerical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques * Model criticism, including evaluations of both model assumptions and model predictions * Comparison of models, including model selection or model averaging * Preparation of the results for a particular audience All these tasks are part of the Exploratory analysis of Bayesian models approach, and successfully performing them is central to the iterative and interactive modeling process. These tasks require both numerical and visual summaries. ArviZ offers data structures for manipulating data common in Bayesian analysis, like numerical samples from the posterior, prior predictive and posterior predictive distributions as well as observed data. Addition ...
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Approximate Bayesian Computation
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics that can be used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and ap ...
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo
In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Application domains MCMC methods are primarily used for calculating numerical approximations of multi-dimensional integrals, for example in Bayesian statistics, computational physics, computational biology and computational linguistics. In Bayesian statistics, the recent development of MCMC methods has made it possible to compute large hierarchical models that require integrations over hundreds to thousands of unknown parameters. In rare even ...
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Probabilistic Programming
Probabilistic programming (PP) is a programming paradigm in which probabilistic models are specified and inference for these models is performed automatically. It represents an attempt to unify probabilistic modeling and traditional general purpose programming in order to make the former easier and more widely applicable.Pfeffer, Avrom (2014), ''Practical Probabilistic Programming'', Manning Publications. p.28. It can be used to create systems that help make decisions in the face of uncertainty. Programming languages used for probabilistic programming are referred to as "probabilistic programming languages" (PPLs). Applications Probabilistic reasoning has been used for a wide variety of tasks such as predicting stock prices, recommending movies, diagnosing computers, detecting cyber intrusions and image detection. However, until recently (partially due to limited computing power), probabilistic programming was limited in scope, and most inference algorithms had to be written ...
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Python (programming Language)
Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability with the use of significant indentation. Python is dynamically-typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented and functional programming. It is often described as a "batteries included" language due to its comprehensive standard library. Guido van Rossum began working on Python in the late 1980s as a successor to the ABC programming language and first released it in 1991 as Python 0.9.0. Python 2.0 was released in 2000 and introduced new features such as list comprehensions, cycle-detecting garbage collection, reference counting, and Unicode support. Python 3.0, released in 2008, was a major revision that is not completely backward-compatible with earlier versions. Python 2 was discontinued with version 2.7.18 in 2020. Python consistently ranks as ...
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Neuroscience
Neuroscience is the scientific study of the nervous system (the brain, spinal cord, and peripheral nervous system), its functions and disorders. It is a multidisciplinary science that combines physiology, anatomy, molecular biology, developmental biology, cytology, psychology, physics, computer science, chemistry, medicine, statistics, and Mathematical Modeling, mathematical modeling to understand the fundamental and emergent properties of neurons, glia and neural circuits. The understanding of the biological basis of learning, memory, behavior, perception, and consciousness has been described by Eric Kandel as the "epic challenge" of the Biology, biological sciences. The scope of neuroscience has broadened over time to include different approaches used to study the nervous system at different scales. The techniques used by neuroscientists have expanded enormously, from molecular biology, molecular and cell biology, cellular studies of individual neurons to neuroimaging, imaging ...
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Computational Statistics
Computational statistics, or statistical computing, is the bond between statistics and computer science. It means statistical methods that are enabled by using computational methods. It is the area of computational science (or scientific computing) specific to the mathematical science of statistics. This area is also developing rapidly, leading to calls that a broader concept of computing should be taught as part of general statistical education. As in traditional statistics the goal is to transform raw data into knowledge, Wegman, Edward J. âComputational Statistics: A New Agenda for Statistical Theory and Practice.€ť Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences', vol. 78, no. 4, 1988, pp. 310–322. ''JSTOR'' but the focus lies on computer intensive statistical methods, such as cases with very large sample size and non-homogeneous data sets. The terms 'computational statistics' and 'statistical computing' are often used interchangeably, although Carlo Lauro (a former presid ...
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Git (software)
Git () is a distributed version control system: tracking changes in any set of files, usually used for coordinating work among programmers collaboratively developing source code during software development. Its goals include speed, data integrity, and support for distributed, non-linear workflows (thousands of parallel branches running on different systems). "So I'm writing some scripts to try to track things a whole lot faster." Git was originally authored by Linus Torvalds in 2005 for development of the Linux kernel, with other kernel developers contributing to its initial development. Since 2005, Junio Hamano has been the core maintainer. As with most other distributed version control systems, and unlike most client–server systems, every Git directory on every computer is a full-fledged repository with complete history and full version-tracking abilities, independent of network access or a central server. Git is free and open-source software distributed under the GPL ...
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Variational Inference
Variational Bayesian methods are a family of techniques for approximating intractable integrals arising in Bayesian inference and machine learning. They are typically used in complex statistical models consisting of observed variables (usually termed "data") as well as unknown parameters and latent variables, with various sorts of relationships among the three types of random variables, as might be described by a graphical model. As typical in Bayesian inference, the parameters and latent variables are grouped together as "unobserved variables". Variational Bayesian methods are primarily used for two purposes: #To provide an analytical approximation to the posterior probability of the unobserved variables, in order to do statistical inference over these variables. #To derive a lower bound for the marginal likelihood (sometimes called the ''evidence'') of the observed data (i.e. the marginal probability of the data given the model, with marginalization performed over unobserve ...
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Metropolis–Hastings Algorithm
In statistics and statistical physics, the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for obtaining a sequence of random samples from a probability distribution from which direct sampling is difficult. This sequence can be used to approximate the distribution (e.g. to generate a histogram) or to compute an integral (e.g. an expected value). Metropolis–Hastings and other MCMC algorithms are generally used for sampling from multi-dimensional distributions, especially when the number of dimensions is high. For single-dimensional distributions, there are usually other methods (e.g. adaptive rejection sampling) that can directly return independent samples from the distribution, and these are free from the problem of autocorrelated samples that is inherent in MCMC methods. History The algorithm was named after Nicholas Metropolis and W.K. Hastings. Metropolis was the first author to appear on the list of authors of the 1953 article ''Equation of ...
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Hybrid Monte Carlo
The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm (originally known as hybrid Monte Carlo) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for obtaining a sequence of random samples which converge to being distributed according to a target probability distribution for which direct sampling is difficult. This sequence can be used to estimate integrals with respect to the target distribution (expected values). Hamiltonian Monte Carlo corresponds to an instance of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, with a Hamiltonian dynamics evolution simulated using a time-reversible and volume-preserving numerical integrator (typically the leapfrog integrator) to propose a move to a new point in the state space. Compared to using a Gaussian random walk proposal distribution in the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo reduces the correlation between successive sampled states by proposing moves to distant states which maintain a high probability of acceptance due to the approximate energy conservin ...
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Journal Of Machine Learning Research
The ''Journal of Machine Learning Research'' is a peer-reviewed open access scientific journal covering machine learning. It was established in 2000 and the first editor-in-chief was Leslie Kaelbling. The current editors-in-chief are Francis Bach (Inria) and David Blei (Columbia University). History The journal was established as an open-access alternative to the journal ''Machine Learning''. In 2001, forty editorial board members of ''Machine Learning'' resigned, saying that in the era of the Internet, it was detrimental for researchers to continue publishing their papers in expensive journals with pay-access archives. The open access model employed by the ''Journal of Machine Learning Research'' allows authors to publish articles for free and retain copyright, while archives are freely available online. Print editions of the journal were published by MIT Press until 2004 and by Microtome Publishing thereafter. From its inception, the journal received no revenue from the pr ...
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