Peter Turchin
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Peter Turchin
Peter Valentinovich Turchin (russian: Пётр Валенти́нович Турчи́н; born 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at ''Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution''. , he is a director of the Evolution Institute. Early life and education Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in Obninsk, Russia, and in 1964 he moved with his family to Moscow. In 1975 he enrolled at Moscow State University's Faculty of Biology and studied there until 1977, when his father, Soviet dissident Valentin Turchin, was exiled from the Soviet Union. In 1980, Turchin obtained B.A. (''cum laude'') from New York University, and in his Ph.D. in from Duke University in 1985. Career Throughout his career Turchin has made contributions to various fields, ...
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Obninsk
Obninsk (russian: О́бнинск) is a city in Kaluga Oblast, Russia, located on the bank of the Protva River southwest of Moscow and northeast of Kaluga. Population: History The history of Obninsk began in 1945 when the First Research Institute Laboratory "V", which later became known as IPPE (Institute of Physics and Power Engineering) was founded. On June 27, 1954, Obninsk started operations of the world's first nuclear power plant to generate electricity for a power grid. The city was built next to the plant in order to support it. Scientists, engineers, construction workers, teachers and other professionals moved to Obninsk from all over the Soviet Union. Town status was granted to Obninsk on June 24, 1956. The name of the city is taken from Obninskoye, the train station in Moscow-Bryansk railroad, built in Tsarist times. Obninskoye and Obninsk were the frontline edges of the White/Red Armies in 1917-1924, also the 1812 War with France and the 1941-1942 Battle of Mosco ...
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Clio
In Greek mythology, Clio ( , ; el, Κλειώ), also spelled Kleio, is the muse of history, or in a few mythological accounts, the muse of lyre playing. Etymology Clio's name is etymologically derived from the Greek root κλέω/κλείω (meaning "to recount", "to make famous" or "to celebrate"). The name's traditional Latinisation is Clio,Lewis and Short, ''A Latin Dictionary: Founded on Andrews' Edition of Freund's Latin Dictionary: Revised, Enlarged, and in Great Part Rewritten by Charlton T. Lewis, Ph.D. and Charles Short, LL.D''. The Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1879, ''s.v.'' but some modern systems such as the American Library Association-Library of Congress system use ''K'' to represent the original Greek ''kappa'', and ''ei'' to represent the diphthong ''ει'' ( epsilon iota), thus ''Kleio''. Depiction Clio, sometimes referred to as "the Proclaimer", is often represented with an open parchment scroll, a book, or a set of tablets. Mythology Like all the mus ...
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Hypothesis
A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. A different meaning of the term ''hypothesis'' is used in formal logic, to denote the antecedent of a proposition; thus in the proposition "If ''P'', then ''Q''", ''P'' denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent); ''Q'' can be called a consequent. ''P'' is the assumption in a (possibly counterfactual) ''What If'' question. The adjective ''hypothetical'', meaning "hav ...
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Asabiyya
'Asabiyyah or 'asabiyya ( ar, عصبيّة, 'group feeling' or 'social cohesion') is a concept of social solidarity with an emphasis on unity, group consciousness, and a sense of shared purpose and social cohesion, originally used in the context of tribalism and clanism.Zuanna, Giampiero Dalla and Micheli, Giuseppe A. ''Strong Family and Low Fertility''. 2004, p. 92 Asabiyya is neither necessarily nomadic nor based on blood relations; rather, it resembles a philosophy of classical republicanism. In the modern period, it is generally analogous to solidarity. However, it is often negatively associated because it can sometimes suggest nationalism or partisanship, i.e., loyalty to one's group regardless of circumstances. The concept was familiar in the pre-Islamic era, but became popularized in Ibn Khaldun's ''Muqaddimah'', in which it is described as the fundamental bond of human society and the basic motive force of history, pure only in its nomadic form.Ibn KhaldunThe Muqaddimah', ...
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Ibn Khaldun
Ibn Khaldun (; ar, أبو زيد عبد الرحمن بن محمد بن خلدون الحضرمي, ; 27 May 1332 – 17 March 1406, 732-808 AH) was an Arab The Historical Muhammad', Irving M. Zeitlin, (Polity Press, 2007), p. 21; "It is, of course, Ibn Khaldun as an Arab here speaking, for he claims Arab descent through the male line.". The Arab World: Society, Culture, and State', Halim Barakat (University of California Press, 1993), p. 48;"The renowned Arab sociologist-historian Ibn Khaldun first interpreted Arab history in terms of badu versus hadar conflicts and struggles for power." Ibn Khaldun', M. Talbi, ''The Encyclopaedia of Islam'', Vol. III, ed. B. Lewis, V.L. Menage, C. Pellat, J. Schacht, (Brill, 1986), 825; "Ibn Khaldun was born in Tunis, on I Ramadan 732/27 May 1332, in an Arab family which came originally from the Hadramawt and had been settled at Seville since the beginning of the Muslim conquest...." Ibn Khaldun's Philosophy of History: A Study in the Philos ...
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Societal Collapse
Societal collapse (also known as civilizational collapse) is the fall of a complex human society characterized by the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence. Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural catastrophe, war, pestilence, famine, economic collapse, population decline, and mass migration. A collapsed society may revert to a more primitive state, be absorbed into a stronger society, or completely disappear. Virtually all civilizations have suffered such a fate, regardless of their size or complexity, but some of them later revived and transformed, such as China, India, and Egypt. However, others never recovered, such as the Western and Eastern Roman Empires, the Maya civilization, and the Easter Island civilization. Societal collapse is generally quick but rarely abrupt. Anthropologists, (quantitative) historians, and sociologists have proposed a variety of explanations for the collaps ...
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Princeton University Press
Princeton University Press is an independent publisher with close connections to Princeton University. Its mission is to disseminate scholarship within academia and society at large. The press was founded by Whitney Darrow, with the financial support of Charles Scribner, as a printing press to serve the Princeton community in 1905. Its distinctive building was constructed in 1911 on William Street in Princeton. Its first book was a new 1912 edition of John Witherspoon's ''Lectures on Moral Philosophy.'' History Princeton University Press was founded in 1905 by a recent Princeton graduate, Whitney Darrow, with financial support from another Princetonian, Charles Scribner II. Darrow and Scribner purchased the equipment and assumed the operations of two already existing local publishers, that of the ''Princeton Alumni Weekly'' and the Princeton Press. The new press printed both local newspapers, university documents, ''The Daily Princetonian'', and later added book publishing to it ...
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Social Evolution & History
''Social Evolution & History'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal focused on the development of human societies in the past, present, and future. In addition to original research articles, ''Social Evolution & History'' includes critical notes and a book review section. It is published in English twice a year, in March and September, by Uchitel Publishing House. The editors-in-chief are Dmitri Bondarenko, Leonid Grinin, and Andrey Korotayev. Special issues ''Social Evolution & History'' has published several special issues devoted to questions in social evolution: * Ernest Gellner special memorial issue (guest editor: P. Skalnik) * Exploring the Horizons of Big History (guest editor: G. D. Snooks) * Thirty Years of Early State Research (guest editors: H. J. M. Claessen, R. Hagesteijn, P. van de Velde) * Analyses of Cultural Evolution (guest editor: H. Barry) Indexing The journal is indexed in: * Scopus * Ulrich's database * ERIH * Russian Science Citation Index. See also ...
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Andrey Korotayev
Andrey Vitalievich Korotayev (russian: link=yes, Андре́й Вита́льевич Корота́ев; born 17 February 1961) is a Russian anthropologist, economic historian, comparative political scientist, demographer and sociologist, with major contributions to world-systems theory, cross-cultural studies, Near Eastern history, Big History, and mathematical modelling of social and economic macrodynamics. He is currently the Head of the Laboratory for Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization at the HSE University in Moscow,http://www.hse.ru/org/hse/cfi/lab_mr/staff and a Senior Research Professor at the Center for Big History and System Forecasting of the Institute of Oriental Studies as well as in the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In addition, he is a senior research professor of the International Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics (PDSM) of the Russian Presidential Academy of National ...
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Social Cycle Theory
Social cycle theories are among the earliest social theories in sociology. Unlike the theory of social evolutionism, which views the evolution of society and human history as progressing in some new, unique direction(s), sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles. Such a theory does not necessarily imply that there cannot be any social progress. In the early theory of Sima Qian and the more recent theories of long-term ("secular") political-demographic cycles as well as in the Varnic theory of P.R. Sarkar an explicit accounting is made of social progress. Historical forerunners Interpretation of history as repeating cycles of Dark and Golden Ages was a common belief among ancient cultures. The more limited cyclical view of history defined as repeating cycles of events was put forward in the academic world in the 19th century in historiosophy (a branch of historiography) and is a concept that falls under the ...
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Multilevel Selection
Group selection is a proposed mechanism of evolution in which natural selection acts at the level of the group, instead of at the level of the individual or gene. Early authors such as V. C. Wynne-Edwards and Konrad Lorenz argued that the behavior of animals could affect their survival and reproduction as groups, speaking for instance of actions for the good of the species. In the 1930s, R.A. Fisher and J.B.S. Haldane proposed the concept of kin selection, a form of altruism from the gene-centered view of evolution, arguing that animals should sacrifice for their relatives, and thereby implying that they should not sacrifice for non-relatives. From the mid 1960s, evolutionary biologists such as John Maynard Smith, W. D. Hamilton, George C. Williams, and Richard Dawkins argued that natural selection acted primarily at the level of the gene. They argued on the basis of mathematical models that individuals would not altruistically sacrifice fitness for the sake of a group unles ...
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Cliometrics
Cliometrics (, also ), sometimes called new economic history or econometric history, is the systematic application of economic theory, econometric techniques, and other formal or mathematical methods to the study of history (especially social and economic history). It is a quantitative approach to economic history (as opposed to qualitative or ethnographic). Edward L. Glaeser"Remembering the Father of Transportation Economics" ''The New York Times'' (Economix), October 27, 2009. There has been a revival in 'new economic history' since the late 1990s. History The new economic history originated in 1958 with ''The Economics of Slavery in the Antebellum South'' by American economists Alfred H. Conrad and John R. Meyer. The book would cause a firestorm of controversy with its claim, based on statistical data, that slavery would not have ended in the absence of the U.S. Civil War, as the practice was economically efficient and highly profitable for slaveowners. The term ''cliometrics ...
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