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Post-election Pendulum For The 2010 Australian Federal Election
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is the independent federal agency in charge of organising, conducting and supervising federal Australian elections, by-elections ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Two-party-preferred percentage The two-party preferred (2PP) method of prediction attempts to estimate the flow of second and subsequent preferences from smaller parties in order of their expec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of La Trobe
The Division of La Trobe is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Victoria. It is located in the outer eastern/south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It includes the suburbs of Berwick, Beaconsfield, Officer and Pakenham, and the towns of Gembrook, Emerald and Cockatoo. Geography Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. History The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 May 1949, and was first contested at the 1949 election. It was named after Charles La Trobe, the first Lieutenant-Governor of Victoria. It was originally located closer to the city, but redistributions moved it further south-east. It ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yvette D'Ath
Yvette Maree D'Ath (born 26 July 1970) is an Australian politician. She is a Labor member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland representing the seat of Redcliffe. D'Ath is currently the Minister for Health and Ambulance Services and Leader of the House. She was previously a Labor member of the Australian House of Representatives representing the outer Brisbane seat of Petrie from 2007 to 2013. Education and early career D'Ath graduated from the Queensland University of Technology with a Bachelor of Laws, followed by a Graduate Diploma in Legal Practice from the Australian National University. After working as a waitress, she was appointed an associate to the Queensland Industrial Relations Commission, serving between 1992 and 1994. She then became a senior industrial advocate for the Australian Workers' Union in Queensland. Federal politics D'Ath won the seat of Petrie for Labor from Liberal Teresa Gambaro at the 2007 election with a 2-point margin from a 9.5-point swing ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Petrie
The Division of Petrie is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. History The division was created in 1949 and named after Andrew Petrie (1798–1872), a noted civil engineer, pioneer, and explorer, and the first free settler in Brisbane (1837). The electorate has a higher-than-average percentage of pensioners and self-funded retirees, and is mainly residential, with some light industrial and commercial activities. Originally a safe Liberal seat, it has become much more marginal since the late 1970s. Since 1975, it has been held by the party of government for all but one term. Ahead of the 2016 federal election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as "bellwether" electorates. Boundaries Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mike Symon
Michael Stuart Symon (born 21 February 1965) is an Australian politician who was elected to the Australian House of Representatives at the 2007 federal election as the Australian Labor Party member for the federal seat of Deakin. He had previously been an electrician and was Occupational Health and Safety Officer of the Electrical Trades Union. He defeated the sitting Liberal member, Phil Barresi, who had held the seat since 1996. The seat had been one of the most marginal Liberal seats in the country for almost three decades. Barresi led for most of the night, but on the fifth count a large flow of Green preferences allowed Symon to become only the second Labor MP in the seat's 70-year history. At the 2010 election, Symon faced Barresi again, and was reelected with a slight swing in his favour—again due to Green preferences. At the 2013 federal election, Symon suffered a swing of 3.8% against him and was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Sukkar Michael Sven S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Deakin
The Division of Deakin is an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria. Geography Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. History The division was created in 1937, and was named in honour of Alfred Deakin, who served as Prime Minister of Australia on three non-consecutive occasions from 1903 to 1910. Deakin had represented the Victorian federal seat of Ballarat from 1901 to 1913. Initially a rural seat, the division has been located in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne since 1949, today taking in Bayswater North, Croydon, Croydon North, Croydon South, East Ringwood, Heatherdale, Heathmont, Kilsyth South, Mitcham, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Daryl Melham
Daryl Melham (born 26 November 1954) is a former Australian politician. He was a Labor member of the Australian House of Representatives representing the Division of Banks in New South Wales from March 1990 until September 2013. Early life and education Melham was born in Sydney, to a family of Lebanese descent and studied law and economics at the University of Sydney, earning an LL.B. and a B.Ec. Career Legal career Melham was a barrister and solicitor and a public defender before entering politics. He was Vice-President of the New South Wales Labor Party from 1999 until 2002. Melham worked as a solicitor with the Legal Aid Commission of New South Wales, specialising in criminal law from 1979 to 1987. He was subsequently admitted to the bar as a barrister, and was a public defender until his entry into federal politics in 1990. He is also a foundation member of the NSW Society of Labor Lawyers. Melham is a Life Member and has served as President of the Revesby Workers' Clu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Banks
The Division of Banks is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. History The division was created in 1949 and is named for Sir Joseph Banks, the British naturalist and botanist who accompanied James Cook on his voyage to Australia in 1770. It has always been based in the south-western and southern suburbs of Sydney, including the suburbs of Padstow, Panania, Peakhurst and Revesby. Up until 2013, it was held since its creation by the Australian Labor Party, but has grown increasingly marginal from the 1990s onward. It was almost lost in 2004, but the 2006 redistribution added areas to the west in Bankstown and Condell Park which strengthened the seat for Labor. Those areas were lost in the 2009 redistribution, which pushed Banks into new areas to the east, around Hurstville. Long-term Labor member, Daryl Melham, was defeated at the 2013 federal election by current member David Coleman. Coleman became the first non-Labor member for the seat, breakin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Graham Perrett
Graham Douglas Perrett (born 5 January 1966) is an Australian politician who has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2007, representing the Queensland seat of Moreton for the Australian Labor Party (ALP). He worked as a schoolteacher, solicitor, and political staffer before entering parliament. Early life Perrett was born in St George in Queensland in 1966 (seventh child in a family of ten children), and received a diploma of teaching in 1985. He taught for three years in schools on the Darling Downs and Far North Queensland, then another eight years in Brisbane. In 1993, Perrett completed a BA (Hons) through the University of Queensland. His thesis was a study of ''The Autobiography of Malcolm X''. He later received an LL.B. from Queensland University of Technology in 1999. He worked as a solicitor of the Supreme Court of Queensland from 1999 to 2005 in Quinn & Scattini. After working with the Queensland Independent Education Union as an organiser he was given ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Moreton
The Division of Moreton is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. History The division was one of the original 65 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named after Moreton Bay, and originally stretched from southern Brisbane all the way to the Gold Coast. While successive redistributions have left the seat completely landlocked, it has nonetheless retained the name of Moreton, mainly because the Australian Electoral Commission's guidelines on electoral redistributions require it to preserve the names of original electorates where possible. The seat was in the hands of the Liberal Party and its predecessors for 86 years before Labor regained it in 1990. From then until 2013, it was a bellwether seat, electing the candidate from the winning party in every election. The seat is known for having decided the 1961 federal election. The Liberals only won the seat by 130 votes to give the Coalition a bare one-seat majority; had 93 Communist preferences ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
David Bradbury (politician)
David John Bradbury (born 28 February 1976 in Sydney) is a former Australian politician. He was a Labor member of the Australian House of Representatives, representing the Division of Lindsay, in New South Wales, from 2007 until 2013. Bradbury was the Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs, Assistant Treasurer, Minister Assisting for Financial Services and Superannuation, and Minister Assisting for Deregulation. He is currently the Head of Tax Policy and Statistics at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Centre For Tax Policy and Administration. Early life and education Bradbury was born and raised in Fairfield in Western Sydney. He was educated at Patrician Brothers' College, Fairfield, where he was elected College Captain in 199 Bradbury studied at the University of Sydney where he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Laws with Honours. He subsequently completed postgraduate studies in taxation law, also at the Universit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Lindsay
The Division of Lindsay is an Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives, Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Ever since Lindsay was first contested at the 1984 Australian federal election, 1984 federal election the seat had always elected a member of the government of the day − a pattern known as a "bellwether" seat. However, Lindsay's bellwether run ended at the 2016 Australian federal election, 2016 federal election when Australian Labor Party, Labor's Emma Husar defeated one-term Liberal Party of Australia, Liberal Fiona Scott. History The division is named after Norman Lindsay, the prominent Australian artist, writer and sculptor. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984 and was first contested at the 1984 Australian federal election, 1984 federal election. The Division of Lindsay has bellwether status. The 2016 federal election is the only instance where the member to win the seat has not been from the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
