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Mean Directional Accuracy
Mean directional accuracy (MDA), also known as mean direction accuracy, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It compares the forecast direction (upward or downward) to the actual realized direction. It is defined by the following formula: : \frac\sum_t \mathbf_ where ''A''''t'' is the actual value at time ''t'' and ''F''''t'' is the forecast value at time ''t''. Variable ''N'' represents number of forecasting points. The function \sgn(\cdot) is sign function and \mathbf is the indicator function. In simple words, MDA provides the probability that the under study forecasting method can detect the correct direction of the time series. MDA is a popular metric for forecasting performance in economics and finance. MDA is used in economics applications where the economist is often interested only in directional movement of variable of interest. As an example in macroeconomics, a monetary authority who wants to know the direction of the inflatio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistics
Statistics (from German: '' Statistik'', "description of a state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.Dodge, Y. (2006) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', Oxford University Press. When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample to the population as a whole. An ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sign Function
In mathematics, the sign function or signum function (from '' signum'', Latin for "sign") is an odd mathematical function that extracts the sign of a real number. In mathematical expressions the sign function is often represented as . To avoid confusion with the sine function, this function is usually called the signum function. Definition The signum function of a real number is a piecewise function which is defined as follows: \sgn x :=\begin -1 & \text x 0. \end Properties Any real number can be expressed as the product of its absolute value and its sign function: x = , x, \sgn x. It follows that whenever is not equal to 0 we have \sgn x = \frac = \frac\,. Similarly, for ''any'' real number , , x, = x\sgn x. We can also ascertain that: \sgn x^n=(\sgn x)^n. The signum function is the derivative of the absolute value function, up to (but not including) the indeterminacy at zero. More formally, in integration theory it is a weak derivative, and in convex functio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Indicator Function
In mathematics, an indicator function or a characteristic function of a subset of a set is a function that maps elements of the subset to one, and all other elements to zero. That is, if is a subset of some set , one has \mathbf_(x)=1 if x\in A, and \mathbf_(x)=0 otherwise, where \mathbf_A is a common notation for the indicator function. Other common notations are I_A, and \chi_A. The indicator function of is the Iverson bracket of the property of belonging to ; that is, :\mathbf_(x)= \in A For example, the Dirichlet function is the indicator function of the rational numbers as a subset of the real numbers. Definition The indicator function of a subset of a set is a function \mathbf_A \colon X \to \ defined as \mathbf_A(x) := \begin 1 ~&\text~ x \in A~, \\ 0 ~&\text~ x \notin A~. \end The Iverson bracket provides the equivalent notation, \in A/math> or to be used instead of \mathbf_(x)\,. The function \mathbf_A is sometimes denoted , , , or even just . Not ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economics
Economics () is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of economic agents and how economies work. Microeconomics analyzes what's viewed as basic elements in the economy, including individual agents and markets, their interactions, and the outcomes of interactions. Individual agents may include, for example, households, firms, buyers, and sellers. Macroeconomics analyzes the economy as a system where production, consumption, saving, and investment interact, and factors affecting it: employment of the resources of labour, capital, and land, currency inflation, economic growth, and public policies that have impact on these elements. Other broad distinctions within economics include those between positive economics, describing "what is", and normative economics, advocating "what ought to be"; between economic theory and applied economics; between rational a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finance
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitabil ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics (from the Greek prefix ''makro-'' meaning "large" + ''economics'') is a branch of economics dealing with performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. For example, using interest rates, taxes, and government spending to regulate an economy's growth and stability. This includes regional, national, and global economies. According to a 2018 assessment by economists Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson, economic "evidence regarding the consequences of different macroeconomic policies is still highly imperfect and open to serious criticism." Macroeconomists study topics such as Gross domestic product, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), unemployment (including Unemployment#Measurement, unemployment rates), national income, price index, price indices, output (economics), output, Consumption (economics), consumption, inflation, saving, investment (macroeconomics), investment, Energy economics, energy, international trade, and international finance. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD), is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It usually expresses the accuracy as a ratio defined by the formula: : \mbox = \frac\sum_^n \left, \frac\ where is the actual value and is the forecast value. Their difference is divided by the actual value . The absolute value of this ratio is summed for every forecasted point in time and divided by the number of fitted points . MAPE in regression problems Mean absolute percentage error is commonly used as a loss function for regression problems and in model evaluation, because of its very intuitive interpretation in terms of relative error. Definition Consider a standard regression setting in which the data are fully described by a random pair Z=(X,Y) with values in \mathbb^d\times\mathbb, and i.i.d. copies (X_1, Y_1), ..., (X_n, Y_n) of (X,Y). Regression models aims at finding a good model ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Median Absolute Deviation
In statistics, the median absolute deviation (MAD) is a robust measure of the variability of a univariate sample of quantitative data. It can also refer to the population parameter that is estimated by the MAD calculated from a sample. For a univariate data set ''X''1, ''X''2, ..., ''Xn'', the MAD is defined as the median of the absolute deviations from the data's median \tilde=\operatorname(X) : : \operatorname = \operatorname( , X_i - \tilde, ) that is, starting with the residuals (deviations) from the data's median, the MAD is the median of their absolute values. Example Consider the data (1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 9). It has a median value of 2. The absolute deviations about 2 are (1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 4, 7) which in turn have a median value of 1 (because the sorted absolute deviations are (0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 4, 7)). So the median absolute deviation for this data is 1. Uses The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a rob ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
