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Makridakis Competitions
The Makridakis Competitions (also known as the M Competitions or M-Competitions) are a series of open competitions to evaluate and compare the accuracy of different time series forecasting methods. They are organized by teams led by forecasting researcher Spyros Makridakis and were first held in 1982. Competitions Summary First competition in 1982 The first Makridakis Competition, held in 1982, and known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competition, used 1001 time series and 15 forecasting methods (with another nine variations of those methods included). According to a later paper by the authors, the following were the main conclusions of the M-Competition: # Statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones. # The relative ranking of the performance of the various methods varies according to the accuracy measure being used. # The accuracy when various methods are combined outperforms, on average, the indi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Time Series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''forecasting' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spyros Makridakis
Spyros Makridakis (born 22 April 1941) is a professor of thUniversity of NicosiaUNIC where he is the Director of the Institute for the Future (IFF) and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world's leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. Biography Makridakis was part of the Greek Sailing Team in the 1960 Olympic Games and studied at the Graduate School of Industrial Studies in Piraeus (University of Piraeus, present name). After that, he joined New York University where he obtained a Ph.D. in 1969. He has held a number of teaching and research positions including positions as research fellow at IIM Berlin and Stanford University and a visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT. He joined INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France) in 1970 and is currently a professor at th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Institute Of Forecasters
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) is a non-profit organization based in Medford, Massachusetts and founded in 1981 that describes itself as "dedicated to developing and furthering the generation, distribution, and use of knowledge on forecasting." Publications The IIF publishes the following: * Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting * International Journal of Forecasting, published in collaboration with Elsevier * The Oracle Conferences The IIF organizes the annual International Symposium on Forecasting, held in a different location each year. They have also organized and sponsored other conferences and workshops. IIF has collaborated with other organizations such as the European Central Bank in organizing workshops and conferences. Other activities The International Institute of Forecasters sponsored the M3 competition, a forecasting competition whose results were published in a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Journal Of Forecasting
The ''International Journal of Forecasting'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal on forecasting. It is published by Elsevier on behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters. Its objective is to "unify the field of forecasting and to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers". The journal was established in 1985. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 7.022. Editors-in-chief The editors-in-chief of the journal have been: * Pierre Pinson (2019–) * Esther Ruiz (2019) * Rob J. Hyndman (2005–2018) * Jan G. de Gooijer (1998–2004) * Robert Fildes (1988–1998) * J. Scott Armstrong (1988–1989) * Spyros Makridakis Spyros Makridakis (born 22 April 1941) is a professor of thUniversity of NicosiaUNIC where he is the Director of the Institute for the Future (IFF) and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rob J
Rob or ROB may refer to: Places * Rob, Velike Lašče, a settlement in Slovenia * Roberts International Airport (IATA code ROB), in Monrovia, Liberia People * Rob (given name), a given name or nickname, e.g., for Robert(o), Robin/Robyn * Rob (surname) * ''Rob.'', taxonomic author abbreviation for William Robinson (gardener) (1838–1935), Irish practical gardener and journalist Fictional characters * Rob, a character from the Cartoon Network series ''The Amazing World of Gumball'' * ROB 64, a character in the ''Star Fox'' video game series Arts, entertainment, and media Gaming * '' Castlevania: Rondo of Blood'', a 1993 video game nicknamed ''Castlevania: ROB'' * R.O.B., an accessory for the Nintendo Entertainment System Reports * ''ISM Report On Business'' (informally, "The R.O.B."), an economic report issued by the Institute for Supply Management * ''Report on Business'', or "ROB", a section of the ''Globe and Mail'' newspaper Other uses in arts, entertainment, and media ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Journal Of Forecasting
The ''Journal of Forecasting'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal published eight times per year by John Wiley & Sons. The journal was established in 1982 and covers all aspects of forecasting, including subject areas such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering, and social sciences. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2020 impact factor The impact factor (IF) or journal impact factor (JIF) of an academic journal is a scientometric index calculated by Clarivate that reflects the yearly mean number of citations of articles published in the last two years in a given journal, as i ... of 2.306, ranking it 164th out of 378 journals in the category "Economics" and 176th out of 226 journals in the category "Management". References External links * {{Official, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-131X Wiley (publisher) academic journals English-language journals Academic journals established in 1982 Bus ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Symposium Of Forecasting
International is an adjective (also used as a noun) meaning "between nations". International may also refer to: Music Albums * ''International'' (Kevin Michael album), 2011 * ''International'' (New Order album), 2002 * ''International'' (The Three Degrees album), 1975 *''International'', 2018 album by L'Algérino Songs * The Internationale, the left-wing anthem * "International" (Chase & Status song), 2014 * "International", by Adventures in Stereo from ''Monomania'', 2000 * "International", by Brass Construction from ''Renegades'', 1984 * "International", by Thomas Leer from ''The Scale of Ten'', 1985 * "International", by Kevin Michael from ''International'' (Kevin Michael album), 2011 * "International", by McGuinness Flint from ''McGuinness Flint'', 1970 * "International", by Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark from '' Dazzle Ships'', 1983 * "International (Serious)", by Estelle from '' All of Me'', 2012 Politics * Political international, any transnational organizatio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Statistical Review
The International Statistical Institute (ISI) is a professional association of statisticians. It was founded in 1885, although there had been international statistical congresses since 1853. The institute has about 4,000 elected members from government, academia, and the private sector. The affiliated Associations have membership open to any professional statistician. The institute publishes a variety of books and journals, and holds an international conference every two years. The biennial convention was commonly known as the ISI Session; however, since 2011, it is now referred to as the ISI World Statistics Congress. The permanent office of the institute is located in the Statistics Netherlands building in Leidschenveen (The Hague), in the Netherlands. Specialized Associations ISI serves as an umbrella for seven specialized Associations: * Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability (BS) *International Association for Statistical Computing (IASC) *Internatio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Neural Network
A neural network is a network or circuit of biological neurons, or, in a modern sense, an artificial neural network, composed of artificial neurons or nodes. Thus, a neural network is either a biological neural network, made up of biological neurons, or an artificial neural network, used for solving artificial intelligence (AI) problems. The connections of the biological neuron are modeled in artificial neural networks as weights between nodes. A positive weight reflects an excitatory connection, while negative values mean inhibitory connections. All inputs are modified by a weight and summed. This activity is referred to as a linear combination. Finally, an activation function controls the amplitude of the output. For example, an acceptable range of output is usually between 0 and 1, or it could be −1 and 1. These artificial networks may be used for predictive modeling, adaptive control and applications where they can be trained via a dataset. Self-learning resulting from e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE or sMAPE) is an accuracy measure based on percentage (or relative) errors. It is usually defined as follows: : \text = \frac \sum_^n \frac where ''A''''t'' is the actual value and ''F''''t'' is the forecast value. The absolute difference between ''A''''t'' and ''F''''t'' is divided by half the sum of absolute values of the actual value ''A''''t'' and the forecast value ''F''''t''. The value of this calculation is summed for every fitted point ''t'' and divided again by the number of fitted points ''n''. The earliest reference to similar formula appears to be Armstrong (1985, p. 348) where it is called "adjusted MAPE" and is defined without the absolute values in denominator. It has been later discussed, modified and re-proposed by Flores (1986). Armstrong's original definition is as follows: : \text = \frac 1 n \sum_^n \frac The problem is that it can be negative (if A_t + F_t < 0) or even undefined (if |
Artificial Neural Network
Artificial neural networks (ANNs), usually simply called neural networks (NNs) or neural nets, are computing systems inspired by the biological neural networks that constitute animal brains. An ANN is based on a collection of connected units or nodes called artificial neurons, which loosely model the neurons in a biological brain. Each connection, like the synapses in a biological brain, can transmit a signal to other neurons. An artificial neuron receives signals then processes them and can signal neurons connected to it. The "signal" at a connection is a real number, and the output of each neuron is computed by some non-linear function of the sum of its inputs. The connections are called ''edges''. Neurons and edges typically have a ''weight'' that adjusts as learning proceeds. The weight increases or decreases the strength of the signal at a connection. Neurons may have a threshold such that a signal is sent only if the aggregate signal crosses that threshold. Typically ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (; alternatively ''Nessim ''or'' Nissim''; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. ''The Sunday Times'' called his 2007 book '' The Black Swan'' one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. Taleb is the author of the ''Incerto'', a five-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (of which the best-known books are ''The Black Swan'' and ''Antifragile''). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008. He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal ''Risk and Decision Analysis'' since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
