Lucas Island Model
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Lucas Island Model
The Lucas islands model is an economic model of the link between money supply and price and output changes in a simplified economy using rational expectations. It delivered a new classical explanation of the Phillips curve relationship between unemployment and inflation. The model was formulated by Robert Lucas, Jr. in a series of papers in the 1970s. Description The model contains a group of N islands, with one individual on each. Each individual produces some quantity Y, which can be bought for some amount of money M. Individuals use money a given number of times to buy a certain quantity of goods which cost a certain price. In the quantity theory of money, this is expressed as MV = PY, where money supply times velocity equals price times output. Lucas then introduced variation in the price level. This can occur through changes in the local price level of individual islands due to increased or decreased demand (i.e. asymmetric preferences, z) or through stochastic processes ...
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Economic Model
In economics, a model is a theoretical construct representing economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and/or quantitative relationships between them. The economic model is a simplified, often mathematical, framework designed to illustrate complex processes. Frequently, economic models posit structural parameters. A model may have various exogenous variables, and those variables may change to create various responses by economic variables. Methodological uses of models include investigation, theorizing, and fitting theories to the world. Overview In general terms, economic models have two functions: first as a simplification of and abstraction from observed data, and second as a means of selection of data based on a paradigm of econometric study. ''Simplification'' is particularly important for economics given the enormous complexity of economic processes. This complexity can be attributed to the diversity of factors that determine economic activity; ...
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Quantity Theory Of Money
In monetary economics, the quantity theory of money (often abbreviated QTM) is one of the directions of Western economic thought that emerged in the 16th-17th centuries. The QTM states that the general price level of goods and services is directly proportional to the amount of money in circulation, or money supply. For example, if the amount of money in an economy doubles, QTM predicts that price levels will also double. The theory was originally formulated by Renaissance mathematician Nicolaus Copernicus in 1517, and was influentially restated by philosophers John Locke, David Hume, Jean Bodin. The theory experienced a large surge in popularity with economists Anna Schwartz and Milton Friedman's book ''A Monetary History of the United States,'' published in 1963. The theory was challenged by Keynesian economists,Minsky, Hyman P. ''John Maynard Keynes'', McGraw-Hill. 2008. p.2. but updated and reinvigorated by the monetarist school of economics, led by economist Milton Friedman. ...
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Monetary Economics
Monetary economics is the branch of economics that studies the different competing theories of money: it provides a framework for analyzing money and considers its functions (such as medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account), and it considers how money can gain acceptance purely because of its convenience as a public good. The discipline has historically prefigured, and remains integrally linked to, macroeconomics. This branch also examines the effects of monetary systems, including regulation of money and associated financial institutions and international aspects. Modern analysis has attempted to provide microfoundations for the demand for money and to distinguish valid nominal and real monetary relationships for micro or macro uses, including their influence on the aggregate demand for output. Its methods include deriving and testing the implications of money as a substitute for other assets and as based on explicit frictions. History The foundational conce ...
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Neutrality Of Money
Neutral or neutrality may refer to: Mathematics and natural science Biology * Neutral organisms, in ecology, those that obey the unified neutral theory of biodiversity Chemistry and physics * Neutralization (chemistry), a chemical reaction in which an acid and a base react quantitatively with each other * Neutral solution, a chemical solution which is neither acidic nor basic * Neutral particle, a particle without electrical charge Mathematics * Neutral element or identity element, in mathematics, a special element with respect to a binary operation, such that if the operation is applied to any element in a set, that element is unchanged * Neutral vector, a multivariate random variable that exhibits a particular type of statistical independence (Dirichlet distribution) Philosophy * Neutrality (philosophy), the absence of declared or intentional bias * Neutrality (psychoanalysis) * Neutral level, the physical or material traces of esthesic and poietic processes identified i ...
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Neutrality Of Money
Neutral or neutrality may refer to: Mathematics and natural science Biology * Neutral organisms, in ecology, those that obey the unified neutral theory of biodiversity Chemistry and physics * Neutralization (chemistry), a chemical reaction in which an acid and a base react quantitatively with each other * Neutral solution, a chemical solution which is neither acidic nor basic * Neutral particle, a particle without electrical charge Mathematics * Neutral element or identity element, in mathematics, a special element with respect to a binary operation, such that if the operation is applied to any element in a set, that element is unchanged * Neutral vector, a multivariate random variable that exhibits a particular type of statistical independence (Dirichlet distribution) Philosophy * Neutrality (philosophy), the absence of declared or intentional bias * Neutrality (psychoanalysis) * Neutral level, the physical or material traces of esthesic and poietic processes identified i ...
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Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition
The policy-ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) is a new classical theory proposed in 1975 by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace based upon the theory of rational expectations, which posits that monetary policy cannot systematically manage the levels of output and employment in the economy. Theory Prior to the work of Sargent and Wallace, macroeconomic models were largely based on the adaptive expectations assumption. Many economists found this unsatisfactory since it assumes that agents may repeatedly make systematic errors and can only revise their expectations in a backward-looking way. Under adaptive expectations, agents do not revise their expectations even if the government announces a policy that involves increasing money supply beyond its expected growth level. Revisions would only be made after the increase in the money supply has occurred, and even then agents would react only gradually. In each period that agents found their expectations of inflation to be wrong, a certain pr ...
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Trend Estimation
Linear trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as, for example, a sequences or time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data, by relating the measurements to the times at which they occurred. This model can then be used to describe the behaviour of the observed data, without explaining it. In particular, it may be useful to determine if measurements exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend which is statistically distinguished from random behaviour. Some examples are determining the trend of the daily average temperatures at a given location from winter to summer, and determining the trend in a global temperature series over the last 100 years. In the latter case, issues of homogeneity are important (for example, about whether the series is equally reliable throughout its length). Fitting a trend: least-squares Given a set of data an ...
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Real Versus Nominal Value (economics)
In economics, nominal value is measured in terms of money, whereas real value is measured against goods or services. A real value is one which has been adjusted for inflation, enabling comparison of quantities as if the prices of goods had not changed on average; therefore, changes in real value exclude the effect of inflation. In contrast, a nominal value has not been adjusted for inflation, and so changes in nominal value reflect at least in part the effect of inflation but will not hold the same purchasing power. Commodity bundles, price indices and inflation A commodity bundle is a sample of goods, which is used to represent the sum total of goods across the economy to which the goods belong, for the purpose of comparison across different times (or locations). At a single point of time, a commodity bundle consists of a list of goods, and each good in the list has a market price and a quantity. The market value of the good is the market price times the quantity at that poin ...
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Stochastic Processes
In probability theory and related fields, a stochastic () or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a family of random variables. Stochastic processes are widely used as mathematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. Examples include the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule. Stochastic processes have applications in many disciplines such as biology, chemistry, ecology, neuroscience, physics, image processing, signal processing, control theory, information theory, computer science, cryptography and telecommunications. Furthermore, seemingly random changes in financial markets have motivated the extensive use of stochastic processes in finance. Applications and the study of phenomena have in turn inspired the proposal of new stochastic processes. Examples of such stochastic processes include the Wiener process or Brownian motion pro ...
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Equation Of Exchange
In monetary economics, the equation of exchange is the relation: :M\cdot V = P\cdot Q where, for a given period, :M\, is the total money supply in circulation on average in an economy. :V\, is the velocity of money, that is the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent. :P\, is the price level. :Q\, is an index of real expenditures (on newly produced goods and services). Thus ''PQ'' is the level of nominal expenditures. This equation is a rearrangement of the definition of velocity: ''V'' = ''PQ'' / ''M''. As such, without the introduction of any assumptions, it is a tautology. The quantity theory of money adds assumptions about the money supply, the price level, and the effect of interest rates on velocity to create a theory about the causes of inflation and the effects of monetary policy. In earlier analysis before the wide availability of the national income and product accounts, the equation of exchange was more frequently expressed in transactions form: :M\ ...
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Journal Of Political Economy
The ''Journal of Political Economy'' is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal published by the University of Chicago Press. Established by James Laurence Laughlin in 1892, it covers both theoretical and empirical economics. In the past, the journal published quarterly from its introduction through 1905, ten issues per volume from 1906 through 1921, and bimonthly from 1922 through 2019. The editor-in-chief is Magne Mogstad (University of Chicago). It is considered one of the top five journals in economics. Abstracting and indexing The journal is abstracted and indexed in EBSCO, ProQuest, EconLit , Research Papers in Economics, Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences, and the Social Sciences Citation Index. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2020 impact factor of 9.103, ranking it 4/376 journals in the category "Economics". The journal is department-owned University of Chicago journal. Notable papers Among the most influential papers ...
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Money Supply
In macroeconomics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include Circulation (currency), currency in circulation (i.e. physical cash) and demand deposits (depositors' easily accessed assets on the books of financial institutions). The central bank of a country may use a definition of what constitutes legal tender for its purposes. Money supply data is recorded and published, usually by a government agency or the central bank of the country. Public sector, Public and private sector analysts monitor changes in the money supply because of the belief that such changes affect the price levels of Security (finance), securities, inflation, the exchange rates, and the business cycle. The relationship between money and prices has historically been associated with the quantity theory of money. There is some empirical evidence of a ...
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