Livingston Survey
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Livingston Survey
The Livingston Survey is a biannual survey (conducted in June and December of every year) about the economy of the United States conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Begun in 1946, it is the longest continuous record of economists' expectations. History Joseph Livingston, then the financial editor for ''The Philadelphia Record'', created the survey in 1946. His detailed questionnaire asked approximately 50 economists around the United States to forecast various economic performance metrics for the next six months, year, and two years. Livingston administered the survey semiannually until his death in 1989, making it the longest continuous record of economists' expectations. In 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia digitized Livingston's historical data and made it available to researchers. The bank continued administering the survey after his death. A 1997 paper by Dean Croushure of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia described the history of the su ...
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Economy Of The United States
The United States is a highly developed mixed-market economy and has the world's largest nominal GDP and net wealth. It has the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) behind China. It has the world's seventh-highest per capita GDP (nominal) and the eighth-highest per capita GDP (PPP) as of 2022. US share of Global economy is 15.78% in PPP terms in 2022. The United States has the most technologically powerful and innovative economy in the world. Its firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in artificial intelligence, computers, pharmaceuticals, and medical, aerospace, and military equipment. The U.S. dollar is the currency of record most used in international transactions and is the world's foremost reserve currency, backed by the nation’s massive economy, stable government, extensive natural resources, highly advanced military, its role as the reference standard for the petrodollar system, and its linked eurodollar and la ...
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Consumer Price Index
A consumer price index (CPI) is a price index, the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time. Overview A CPI is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. Sub-indices and sub-sub-indices can be computed for different categories and sub-categories of goods and services, being combined to produce the overall index with weights reflecting their shares in the total of the consumer expenditures covered by the index. It is one of several price indices calculated by most national statistical agencies. The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure of inflation. A CPI can be used to index (i.e. adjust for the effect of inflation) the real value of wages, salaries, and pensions; to regulate prices; and to deflate monetary magnitudes to show changes in real values. In most c ...
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Consensus Economics
Consensus Economics is a global macroeconomic survey firm that polls more than 700 economists monthly for their forecasts for over 2000 macroeconomic indicators in 115 countries. The company is headquartered in London, United Kingdom. History Consensus Economics undertook its first survey in October 1989 and has completed monthly (and now daily) surveys without interruption since that time. Forecasts Consensus Economics publishes Consensus Forecasts, a widely cited monthly compilation of macroeconomic forecasts and topical analyses by country for 115 economies. The countries covered include member countries of the G-7 industrialized nations, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. It also has more specialized publications such as the Foreign Exchange forecasts and Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts. Each publication is distributed in hard-copy format and via email as PDF files and Excel spreadsheets. Once a year the company releases The Consensus Forecasts Global Ou ...
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Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by Wolters Kluwer collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States. The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity. It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates. History Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976. Variables reported The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States: * Real GDP * GDP price index * Nominal GDP * Consumer price index * Industrial production * Real disposable personal income ...
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Survey Of Professional Forecasters
The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is the oldest such survey in the United States. The survey includes an "anxious index" that estimates the probability of a decline in real GDP. History The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. In its early days (prior to the takeover by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) the survey was often referred to in the academic literature as the ASA-NBER survey. In May 2008, it was announced that SPF would be adding an industry classification variable for its survey respondents, so that researchers could more easily determine how people's forecasts related to the industry they were from. Variables The Survey of Professional For ...
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MIT Press
The MIT Press is a university press affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States). It was established in 1962. History The MIT Press traces its origins back to 1926 when MIT published under its own name a lecture series entitled ''Problems of Atomic Dynamics'' given by the visiting German physicist and later Nobel Prize winner, Max Born. Six years later, MIT's publishing operations were first formally instituted by the creation of an imprint called Technology Press in 1932. This imprint was founded by James R. Killian, Jr., at the time editor of MIT's alumni magazine and later to become MIT president. Technology Press published eight titles independently, then in 1937 entered into an arrangement with John Wiley & Sons in which Wiley took over marketing and editorial responsibilities. In 1962 the association with Wiley came to an end after a further 125 titles had been published. The press acquired its modern name af ...
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The Review Of Economics And Statistics
''The'' ''Review of Economics and Statistics'' is a peer-reviewed 103-year-old general journal that focuses on applied economics, with specific relevance to the scope of quantitative economics. The ''Review'', edited at the Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), officially the John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the school of public policy and government of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The school offers master's degrees in public policy, public ... (JSTOR), has the long-term aim of publishing influential articles in mainly theoretical and empirical economics that will contribute to the broader readership in economics in both the present and the continual future. Over the time, the journal has published several of the most significant articles in empirical economics (JSTOR) based on its recognizable history which includes works from “Kenneth Arrow, Milton Friedman, Robert Merton, Paul Samuelson, Robert Sol ...
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S&P 500
The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. As of December 31, 2020, more than $5.4 trillion was invested in assets tied to the performance of the index. The S&P 500 index is a free-float weighted/capitalization-weighted index. As of August 31, 2022, the nine largest companies on the list of S&P 500 companies accounted for 27.8% of the market capitalization of the index and were, in order of highest to lowest weighting: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (including both class A & C shares), Amazon.com, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson and ExxonMobil. The components that have increased their dividends in 25 consecutive years are known as the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats. The index is one of the factors in computation of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index ...
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Nominal GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator. GDP (nominal) per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries; therefore, using a basis of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) may be more useful when comparing living standards between nations, while nominal GDP is more useful comparing national economies on the international market. Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the per capita GDP (also called the Mean Standard of Living). GDP definitions are maintained by a number of national and international economic organizations. The Organisa ...
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Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a money, monetary Measurement in economics, measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator. List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita, GDP (nominal) per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation, inflation rates of the countries; therefore, using a basis of List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) may be more useful when comparing standard of living, living standards between nations, while nominal GDP is more useful comparing national economies on the international market. Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the GDP per capita, p ...
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Real GDP
Real gross domestic product (real GDP) is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes (i.e. inflation or deflation). This adjustment transforms the money-value measure, nominal GDP, into an index for quantity of total output. Although GDP is total output, it is primarily useful because it closely approximates the total spending: the sum of consumer spending, investment made by industry, excess of exports over imports, and government spending. Due to inflation, GDP increases and does not actually reflect the true growth in an economy. That is why the GDP must be divided by the inflation rate (raised to the power of units of time in which the rate is measured) to get the growth of the real GDP. Different organizations use different types of 'Real GDP' measures, for example, the UNCTAD uses 2005 Constant prices and exchange rates while the FRED uses 2009 constant prices and exchange rates, and recently the World Bank switched from 2005 to 2010 c ...
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Bureau Of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the United States Department of Labor, and conducts research measuring the income levels families need to maintain a satisfactory quality of life. BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today's rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, impartiality in both subject matter and presentation, and accessibility t ...
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