Lee–Carter Model
The Lee–Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically by time, usually with ages in columns and years in rows. The output is a forecasted matrix of mortality rates in the same format as the input. The model uses singular value decomposition (SVD) to find: * A univariate time series vector \mathbf_t that captures 80–90% of the mortality trend (here the subscript t refers to time), * A vector \mathbf_x that describes the relative mortality at each age (here the subscript x refers to age), and * A scaling constant (referred to here as s_1 but unnamed in the literature). Surprisingly, \mathbf_t is usually linear, implying that gains to life expectancy are fairly constant year after year in most populations. Prior to computing SVD, age specific mortality rates are first transformed into \mathbf_, by taking their logarithms, and then ce ...
[...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  

Mortality Forecasting
{{unreferenced, date=October 2010 Mortality forecasting refers to the art and science of determining likely future mortality rates. It is especially important in rich countries with a high proportion of aged people, since aged populations are expensive in terms of pensions (both public and private). It is a major topic in Ageing studies. See also * Lee-Carter model * Life expectancy Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected to live, based on the year of its birth, current age, and other demographic factors like sex. The most commonly used measure is life expectancy at birth ... * Actuarial science Actuarial science Death Forecasting ...
[...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]