Law Of Total Variance
In probability theory, the law of total variance or variance decomposition formula or conditional variance formulas or law of iterated variances also known as Eve's law, states that if X and Y are random variables on the same probability space, and the variance of Y is finite, then \operatorname(Y) = \operatorname operatorname(Y \mid X)+ \operatorname(\operatorname \mid X. In language perhaps better known to statisticians than to probability theorists, the two terms are the "unexplained" and the "explained" components of the variance respectively (cf. fraction of variance unexplained, explained variation). In actuarial science, specifically credibility theory, the first component is called the expected value of the process variance (EVPV) and the second is called the variance of the hypothetical means (VHM). These two components are also the source of the term "Eve's law", from the initials EV VE for "expectation of variance" and "variance of expectation". Formulation There is a ...
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Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in probability ...
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