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Laplace's Approximation
In mathematics, Laplace's approximation fits an un-normalised Gaussian approximation to a (twice differentiable) un-normalised target density. In Bayesian statistical inference this is useful to simultaneously approximate the posterior and the marginal likelihood, see also Approximate inference. The method works by matching the log density and curvature at a mode of the target density. For example, a (possibly non-linear) regression or classification model with data set \_ comprising inputs x and outputs y has (unknown) parameter vector \theta of length D. The likelihood is denoted p(, ,\theta) and the parameter prior p(\theta). The joint density of outputs and parameters p(,\theta, ) is the object of inferential desire : p(,\theta, )\;=\;p(, ,\theta)p(\theta)\;=\;p(, )p(\theta, ,)\;\simeq\;\tilde q(\theta)\;=\;Zq(\theta). The joint is equal to the product of the likelihood and the prior and by Bayes' rule, equal to the product of the marginal likelihood p(, ) and posterio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Laplace's Method
In mathematics, Laplace's method, named after Pierre-Simon Laplace, is a technique used to approximate integrals of the form :\int_a^b e^ \, dx, where f(x) is a twice-differentiable function, ''M'' is a large number, and the endpoints ''a'' and ''b'' could possibly be infinite. This technique was originally presented in . In Bayesian statistics, Laplace's approximation can refer to either approximating the posterior normalizing constant with Laplace's method or approximating the posterior distribution with a Gaussian centered at the maximum a posteriori estimate. Laplace approximations play a central role in the integrated nested Laplace approximations method for fast approximate Bayesian inference. The idea of Laplace's method Suppose the function f(x) has a unique global maximum at ''x''0. Let M>0 be a constant and consider the following two functions: :\begin g(x) &= Mf(x) \\ h(x) &= e^ \end Note that ''x''0 will be the global maximum of g and h as well. Now observe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Multivariate Normal Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the multivariate normal distribution, multivariate Gaussian distribution, or joint normal distribution is a generalization of the one-dimensional (univariate) normal distribution to higher dimensions. One definition is that a random vector is said to be ''k''-variate normally distributed if every linear combination of its ''k'' components has a univariate normal distribution. Its importance derives mainly from the multivariate central limit theorem. The multivariate normal distribution is often used to describe, at least approximately, any set of (possibly) correlated real-valued random variables each of which clusters around a mean value. Definitions Notation and parameterization The multivariate normal distribution of a ''k''-dimensional random vector \mathbf = (X_1,\ldots,X_k)^ can be written in the following notation: : \mathbf\ \sim\ \mathcal(\boldsymbol\mu,\, \boldsymbol\Sigma), or to make it explicitly known that ''X'' i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Inference
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability". Introduction to Bayes' rule Formal explanation Bayesian inference derives the posterior probability as a consequence of two antecedents: a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a statistical model for the observed data. Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem: ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Approximate Inference
Approximate inference methods make it possible to learn realistic models from big data Though used sometimes loosely partly because of a lack of formal definition, the interpretation that seems to best describe Big data is the one associated with large body of information that we could not comprehend when used only in smaller am ... by trading off computation time for accuracy, when exact learning and inference are computationally intractable. Major methods classes *Laplace's approximation *Variational Bayesian methods *Markov chain Monte Carlo *Expectation propagation *Markov random fields *Bayesian networks **Variational message passing * Loopy and generalized belief propagation See also *Statistical inference *Fuzzy logic *Data mining References External links *{{cite web, url=http://videolectures.net/mlss09uk_minka_ai/, title=Machine Learning Summer School (MLSS), Cambridge 2009, Approximate Inference, author= Tom Minka, Microsoft Research, date=Nov 2, 2009, t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Likelihood Function
The likelihood function (often simply called the likelihood) represents the probability of random variable realizations conditional on particular values of the statistical parameters. Thus, when evaluated on a given sample, the likelihood function indicates which parameter values are more ''likely'' than others, in the sense that they would have made the observed data more probable. Consequently, the likelihood is often written as \mathcal(\theta\mid X) instead of P(X \mid \theta), to emphasize that it is to be understood as a function of the parameters \theta instead of the random variable X. In maximum likelihood estimation, the arg max of the likelihood function serves as a point estimate for \theta, while local curvature (approximated by the likelihood's Hessian matrix) indicates the estimate's precision. Meanwhile in Bayesian statistics, parameter estimates are derived from the converse of the likelihood, the so-called posterior probability, which is calculated via Bayes' r ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prior Probability
In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. Bayes' theorem calculates the renormalized pointwise product of the prior and the likelihood function, to produce the ''posterior probability distribution'', which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given the data. Similarly, the prior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the unconditional probability that is assigned before any relevant evidence is taken into account. Priors can be created using a num ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes' Theorem
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the population as a whole. One of the many applications of Bayes' theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference. When applied, the probabilities involved in the theorem may have different probability interpretations. With Bayesian probability interpretation, the theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is fundamental to Bayesia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Marginal Likelihood
A marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space. In Bayesian statistics, it represents the probability of generating the observed sample from a prior and is therefore often referred to as model evidence or simply evidence. Concept Given a set of independent identically distributed data points \mathbf=(x_1,\ldots,x_n), where x_i \sim p(x, \theta) according to some probability distribution parameterized by \theta, where \theta itself is a random variable described by a distribution, i.e. \theta \sim p(\theta\mid\alpha), the marginal likelihood in general asks what the probability p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) is, where \theta has been marginalized out (integrated out): :p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) = \int_\theta p(\mathbf\mid\theta) \, p(\theta\mid\alpha)\ \operatorname\!\theta The above definition is phrased in the context of Bayesian statistics in which case p(\theta\mid\alpha) is called prior density and p(\mathbf\mid\theta) is the likelihood. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Posterior Probability
The posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time. After the arrival of new information, the current posterior probability may serve as the prior in another round of Bayesian updating. In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest posterior density interval (HPD ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Maximum A Posteriori
In Bayesian statistics, a maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimate is an estimate of an unknown quantity, that equals the mode of the posterior distribution. The MAP can be used to obtain a point estimate of an unobserved quantity on the basis of empirical data. It is closely related to the method of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, but employs an augmented optimization objective which incorporates a prior distribution (that quantifies the additional information available through prior knowledge of a related event) over the quantity one wants to estimate. MAP estimation can therefore be seen as a regularization of maximum likelihood estimation. Description Assume that we want to estimate an unobserved population parameter \theta on the basis of observations x. Let f be the sampling distribution of x, so that f(x\mid\theta) is the probability of x when the underlying population parameter is \theta. Then the function: :\theta \mapsto f(x \mid \theta) \! is known as th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Definite Matrix
In mathematics, a symmetric matrix M with real entries is positive-definite if the real number z^\textsfMz is positive for every nonzero real column vector z, where z^\textsf is the transpose of More generally, a Hermitian matrix (that is, a complex matrix equal to its conjugate transpose) is positive-definite if the real number z^* Mz is positive for every nonzero complex column vector z, where z^* denotes the conjugate transpose of z. Positive semi-definite matrices are defined similarly, except that the scalars z^\textsfMz and z^* Mz are required to be positive ''or zero'' (that is, nonnegative). Negative-definite and negative semi-definite matrices are defined analogously. A matrix that is not positive semi-definite and not negative semi-definite is sometimes called indefinite. A matrix is thus positive-definite if and only if it is the matrix of a positive-definite quadratic form or Hermitian form. In other words, a matrix is positive-definite if and only if it defines a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Newton's Method In Optimization
In calculus, Newton's method is an iterative method for finding the roots of a differentiable function , which are solutions to the equation . As such, Newton's method can be applied to the derivative of a twice-differentiable function to find the roots of the derivative (solutions to ), also known as the critical points of . These solutions may be minima, maxima, or saddle points; see section "Several variables" in Critical point (mathematics) and also section "Geometric interpretation" in this article. This is relevant in optimization, which aims to find (global) minima of the function . Newton's method The central problem of optimization is minimization of functions. Let us first consider the case of univariate functions, i.e., functions of a single real variable. We will later consider the more general and more practically useful multivariate case. Given a twice differentiable function f:\mathbb\to \mathbb, we seek to solve the optimization problem : \min_ f(x) . ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
