International Fisher Effect
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International Fisher Effect
The international Fisher effect (sometimes referred to as Fisher's open hypothesis) is a hypothesis in international finance that suggests differences in nominal interest rates reflect expected changes in the spot exchange rate between countries. The hypothesis specifically states that a spot exchange rate is expected to change equally in the opposite direction of the interest rate differential; thus, the currency of the country with the higher nominal interest rate is expected to depreciate against the currency of the country with the lower nominal interest rate, as higher nominal interest rates reflect an expectation of inflation. Derivation of the International Fisher effect The International Fisher effect is an extension of the Fisher effect hypothesized by American economist Irving Fisher. The Fisher effect states that a change in a country's expected inflation rate will result in a proportionate change in the country's interest rate :(1+i) = (1+r) \times (1+E pi where :i is ...
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International Finance
International finance (also referred to as international monetary economics or international macroeconomics) is the branch of financial economics broadly concerned with monetary and macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. International finance examines the dynamics of the global financial system, international monetary systems, balance of payments, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and how these topics relate to international trade. Sometimes referred to as multinational finance, international finance is additionally concerned with matters of international financial management. Investors and multinational corporations must assess and manage international risks such as political risk and foreign exchange risk, including transaction exposure, economic exposure, and translation exposure. Some examples of key concepts within international finance are the Mundell–Fleming model, the optimum currency area theory, purchasing power parity, interest rate parit ...
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Nominal Interest Rate
In finance and economics, the nominal interest rate or nominal rate of interest is the rate of interest stated on a loan or investment, without any adjustments or fees. Examples of adjustments or fees # An adjustment for inflation(in contrast with the real interest rate) # Compound interest (also referred to as the nominal annual rate). Nominal versus real interest rate The concept of real interest rate is useful to account for the impact of inflation. In the case of a loan, it is this real interest that the lender effectively receives. For example, if the lender is receiving 8 percent from a loan and the inflation rate is also 8 percent, then the (effective) real rate of interest is zero: despite the increased nominal amount of currency received, the lender would have no monetary value benefit from such a loan because each unit of currency would get devaluated due to inflation by the same factor as the nominal amount gets increased. The relationship between the real interest val ...
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Exchange Rate
In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro. The exchange rate is also regarded as the value of one country's currency in relation to another currency. For example, an interbank exchange rate of 114 Japanese yen to the United States dollar means that ¥114 will be exchanged for or that will be exchanged for ¥114. In this case it is said that the price of a dollar in relation to yen is ¥114, or equivalently that the price of a yen in relation to dollars is $1/114. Each country determines the exchange rate regime that will apply to its currency. For example, a currency may be floating, pegged (fixed), or a hybrid. Governments can impose certain limits and controls on exchange rates. Countries can also have a strong or weak currency. There is no agreement in the econo ...
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Currency
A currency, "in circulation", from la, currens, -entis, literally meaning "running" or "traversing" is a standardization of money in any form, in use or circulation as a medium of exchange, for example banknotes and coins. A more general definition is that a currency is a ''system of money'' in common use within a specific environment over time, especially for people in a nation state. Under this definition, the British Pound Sterling (£), euros (€), Japanese yen (¥), and U.S. dollars (US$)) are examples of (government-issued) fiat currencies. Currencies may act as stores of value and be traded between nations in foreign exchange markets, which determine the relative values of the different currencies. Currencies in this sense are either chosen by users or decreed by governments, and each type has limited boundaries of acceptance - i.e. legal tender laws may require a particular unit of account for payments to government agencies. Other definitions of the term "c ...
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Inflation
In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a sustained decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose. The employment cost index is also used for wages in the United States. Most economists agree that high levels of inflation as well as hyperinflation—which have severely disruptive effects on the real economy—are caused by persistent excessive growth in the money supply. Views on low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be ...
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Fisher Hypothesis
In economics, the Fisher effect is the tendency for nominal interest rates to change to follow the inflation rate. It is named after the economist Irving Fisher, who first observed and explained this relationship. Fisher proposed that the real interest rate is independent of monetary measures (known as the Fisher hypothesis), therefore, the nominal interest rate will adjust to accommodate any changes in expected inflation. Derivation The ''nominal'' interest rate is the accounting interest rate – the percentage by which the amount of dollars (or other currency) owed by a borrower to a lender grows over time. While the ''real'' interest rate is the percentage by which the real purchasing power of the loan grows over time. In other words, the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate adjusted for the effect of inflation on the purchasing power of the outstanding loan. The relation between nominal and real interest rates, and inflation, is approximately given by the Fish ...
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Irving Fisher
Irving Fisher (February 27, 1867 – April 29, 1947) was an American economist, statistician, inventor, eugenicist and progressive social campaigner. He was one of the earliest American neoclassical economists, though his later work on debt deflation has been embraced by the post-Keynesian school. Joseph Schumpeter described him as "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced", an assessment later repeated by James Tobin and Milton Friedman.Milton Friedman, ''Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History'', Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (1994) p. 37. Fisher made important contributions to utility theory and general equilibrium. He was also a pioneer in the rigorous study of intertemporal choice in markets, which led him to develop a theory of capital and interest rates. His research on the quantity theory of money inaugurated the school of macroeconomic thought known as "monetarism". Fisher was also a pioneer of econometrics, including the development of inde ...
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Real Interest Rate
The real interest rate is the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives (or expects to receive) after allowing for inflation. It can be described more formally by the Fisher equation, which states that the real interest rate is approximately the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate. If, for example, an investor were able to lock in a 5% interest rate for the coming year and anticipated a 2% rise in prices, they would expect to earn a real interest rate of 3%. The expected real interest rate is not a single number, as different investors have different expectations of future inflation. Since the inflation rate over the course of a loan is not known initially, volatility in inflation represents a risk to both the lender and the borrower. In the case of contracts stated in terms of the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate is known only at the end of the period of the loan, based on the realized inflation rate; this is called the ex-post real inter ...
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Relative Purchasing Power Parity
Relative Purchasing Power Parity is an economic theory which predicts a relationship between the inflation rates of two countries over a specified period and the movement in the exchange rate between their two currencies over the same period. It is a dynamic version of the absolute purchasing power parity theory. A reason for the prominence of this concept in economic research is the fact that most countries publish inflation data normalized to an arbitrary year, but not absolute price level data. Explanation Suppose that the currency of Country A is called the A$ (A-dollar) and the currency of country B is called the B$. The exchange rate between the two countries is quoted as S \equiv \tfrac, so country A can be regarded as the "home country". The theory states that if the price P_t in country A of a basket of commodities and services is P_t (measured in A$), then the price Q_t of the same basket in country B will be Q_t = C\cdot P_t (still measured in A$), where C is a uni ...
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Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity is a no- arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage. Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets. Given foreign exchange market equilibrium, the interest rate parity condition implies that the expected return on domestic assets will equal the exchange rate-adjusted expected return on foreign currency assets. Investors then cannot earn arbitrage profits by borrowing in a country with a lower interest rate, exchanging for foreign currency, and investing in a foreign country with a higher interest rate, due to gains or losses from exchanging back to their domestic currency at maturity. Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: ''unc ...
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Forward Exchange Rate
The forward exchange rate (also referred to as forward rate or forward price) is the exchange rate at which a bank agrees to exchange one currency for another at a future date when it enters into a forward contract with an investor. Multinational corporations, banks, and other financial institutions enter into forward contracts to take advantage of the forward rate for hedging purposes. The forward exchange rate is determined by a parity relationship among the spot exchange rate and differences in interest rates between two countries, which reflects an economic equilibrium in the foreign exchange market under which arbitrage opportunities are eliminated. When in equilibrium, and when interest rates vary across two countries, the parity condition implies that the forward rate includes a premium or discount reflecting the interest rate differential. Forward exchange rates have important theoretical implications for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Financial economists hav ...
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Spot Exchange Rate
A foreign exchange spot transaction, also known as FX spot, is an agreement between two parties to buy one currency against selling another currency at an agreed price for settlement on the spot date. The exchange rate at which the transaction is done is called the spot exchange rate. As of 2010, the average daily turnover of global FX spot transactions reached nearly US$1.5 trillion, counting 37.4% of all foreign exchange transactions. FX spot transactions increased by 38% to US$2.0 trillion from April 2010 to April 2013. Settlement date The standard settlement timeframe for foreign exchange spot transactions is T+2; i.e., two business days from the trade date. Notable exceptions are USD/CAD, USD/ TRY, USD/ PHP, USD/ RUB, and offshore USD/ KZT and offshore USD/ COP and USD/ PKR currency pairs, which settle at T+1. Majority of SME FX payments are made through Spot FX, partially because businesses aren't aware of alternatives. Execution methods Common methods of exec ...
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