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Hot-hand Fallacy
The hot hand (also known as the hot hand phenomenon or hot hand fallacy) is a phenomenon, previously considered a cognitive bias, cognitive social bias, that a person who experiences a successful outcome has a greater chance of success in further attempts. The concept is often applied to sports and skill-based tasks in general and originates from basketball, where a shooter is more likely to score if their previous attempts were successful – i.e., while having the "hot hand". While previous success at a task can indeed change the Psychology, psychological attitude and subsequent success rate of a player, researchers for many years did not find evidence for a "hot hand" in practice, dismissing it as fallacy, fallacious. However, later research questioned whether the belief is indeed a fallacy. Some recent studies using modern statistical analysis have observed evidence for the "hot hand" in some sporting activities; however, other recent studies have not observed evidence of the "h ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cognitive Bias
A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm (philosophy), norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the Objectivity (philosophy), objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, and irrationality. While cognitive biases may initially appear to be negative, some are adaptive. They may lead to more effective actions in a given context. Furthermore, allowing cognitive biases enables faster decisions which can be desirable when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in Heuristic (psychology), heuristics. Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), the impact of an individual's constitution and bi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sampling Bias
In statistics, sampling bias is a bias (statistics), bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended statistical population, population have a lower or higher sampling probability than others. It results in a biased sample of a population (or non-human factors) in which all individuals, or instances, were not equally likely to have been selected. If this is not accounted for, results can be erroneously attributed to the phenomenon under study rather than to the method of sampling (statistics), sampling. Medical sources sometimes refer to sampling bias as ascertainment bias. Ascertainment bias has basically the same definition, but is still sometimes classified as a separate type of bias. Distinction from selection bias Sampling bias is usually classified as a subtype of selection bias, sometimes specifically termed sample selection bias, but some classify it as a separate type of bias. A distinction, albeit not universally accepted, of samplin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Clustering Illusion
The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of Statistical dispersion, variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or pseudorandom data. Thomas Gilovich, an early author on the subject, argued that the effect occurs for different types of random dispersions. Some might perceive patterns in stock market price fluctuations over time, or clusters in two-dimensional data such as the locations of impact of World War II V-1 flying bombs on maps of London. Although Londoners developed specific theories about the pattern of impacts within London, a statistical analysis by R. D. Clarke originally published in 1946 showed that the impacts of V-2 rockets on London were a close fit to a random distribution. Similar biases Using this cognitive bias in causal reasoning may result in the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Apophenia
Apophenia () is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things. The term ( from the ) was coined by psychiatrist Klaus Conrad in his 1958 publication on the beginning stages of schizophrenia. He defined it as "unmotivated seeing of connections ccompanied bya specific feeling of abnormal meaningfulness". He described the early stages of delusional thought as self-referential over-interpretations of actual sensory perceptions, as opposed to hallucinations. Apophenia has also come to describe a human propensity to unreasonably seek definite patterns in random information, such as can occur in gambling. Introduction Apophenia can be considered a commonplace effect of brain function. Taken to an extreme, however, it can be a symptom of psychiatric dysfunction, for example, as a symptom in schizophrenia, where a patient sees hostile patterns (for example, a conspiracy to persecute them) in ordinary actions. Apophenia is also typical of conspiracy theor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Physical Law
Scientific laws or laws of science are statements, based on repeated experiments or observations, that describe or predict a range of natural phenomena. The term ''law'' has diverse usage in many cases (approximate, accurate, broad, or narrow) across all fields of natural science (physics, chemistry, astronomy, geoscience, biology). Laws are developed from data and can be further developed through mathematics; in all cases they are directly or indirectly based on empirical evidence. It is generally understood that they implicitly reflect, though they do not explicitly assert, causal relationships fundamental to reality, and are discovered rather than invented. Scientific laws summarize the results of experiments or observations, usually within a certain range of application. In general, the accuracy of a law does not change when a new theory of the relevant phenomenon is worked out, but rather the scope of the law's application, since the mathematics or statement representing ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sympathetic Magic
Sympathetic magic, also known as imitative magic, is a type of Magic (paranormal), magic based on imitation or correspondence. Similarity and contagion James George Frazer coined the term "sympathetic magic" in ''The Golden Bough'' (1889); Richard Andree, however, anticipated Frazer, writing of sympathy-enchantment () in his 1878 . Frazer subcategorised sympathetic magic into two varieties: that relying on similarity, and that relying on contact or "contagion": Imitation Imitation involves using effigies, fetishes, or poppets to affect the environment of people, or people themselves. Voodoo dolls are an example of fetishes used in this way: the practitioner uses a lock of hair on the doll to create a link (also known as a "taglock") between the doll and the donor of this lock of hair. In this way, that which happens to the doll will also happen to the person. Correspondence Correspondence (theology), Correspondence is based on the idea that one can influence something based o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Coin Flipping
Coin flipping, coin tossing, or heads or tails is using the thumb to make a coin go up while spinning in the air and checking which side is showing when it is down onto a surface, in order to randomly choose between two alternatives. It is a form of sortition which inherently has two possible outcomes. History Coin flipping was known to the Romans as ''navia aut caput'' ("ship or head"), as some coins had a ship on one side and the head of the emperor on the other. In England, this was referred to as ''cross and pile''. Process During a coin toss, the coin is thrown into the air such that it rotates edge-over-edge an unpredictable number of times. Either beforehand or when the coin is in the air, an interested party declares "heads" or "tails", indicating which side of the coin that party is choosing. The other party is assigned the opposite side. Depending on custom, the coin may be caught; caught and inverted; or allowed to land on the ground. When the coin comes to rest, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Illusion Of Control
The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. It was named by U.S. psychologist Ellen Langer and is thought to influence gambling behavior and belief in the paranormal. Along with illusory superiority and optimism bias, the illusion of control is one of the positive illusions. Definition The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events, for example, when someone feels a sense of control over outcomes that they demonstrably do not influence. The illusion might arise because a person lacks direct introspective insight into whether they are in control of events. This has been called the introspection illusion. Instead, they may judge their degree of control by a process which is often unreliable. As a result, they see themselves as responsible for events to which there is little or no causal link. For example, in one study, college students were in a virtual reality setting t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Roulette
Roulette (named after the French language, French word meaning "little wheel") is a casino game which was likely developed from the Italy, Italian game Biribi. In the game, a player may choose to place a bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the color red or black, whether the number is odd or even, or if the number is high or low. To determine the winning number, a croupier spins a wheel in one direction, then spins a ball in the opposite direction around a tilted circular track running around the outer edge of the wheel. The ball eventually loses momentum, passes through an area of deflectors, and falls onto the wheel and into one of the colored and numbered pockets on the wheel. The winnings are then paid to anyone who has placed a successful bet. History The first form of roulette was devised in 18th-century France. Many historians believe Blaise Pascal introduced a primitive form of roulette in the 17th century in his search for a perpetual motion machine. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Craps
Craps is a dice game in which players gambling, bet on the outcomes of the roll of a pair of dice. Players can wager money against each other (playing "street craps") or against a bank ("casino craps"). Because it requires little equipment, "street craps" can be played in informal settings. While shooting craps, players may use glossary of craps terms, slang terminology to place bets and actions. History Craps developed in the United States from a simplification of the western European game of Hazard (game), Hazard, also spelled Hazzard or Hasard. The origins of Hazard are obscure and may date to the Crusades; a detailed description of Hazard was provided by Edmond Hoyle in ''Hoyle's Games, Improved'' (1790). At approximately the same time (1788), "Krabs" was documented as a French variation on Hazard. In aristocratic London, crabs was the epithet for the sum combinations of two and three for two rolled dice, which in Hazard are instant-losing numbers for the first dice rol ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Major League Baseball
Major League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball league composed of 30 teams, divided equally between the National League (baseball), National League (NL) and the American League (AL), with 29 in the United States and 1 in Canada. MLB is one of the major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada and is considered the premier professional baseball league in the world. Each team plays 162 games per season, with Opening Day traditionally held during the first week of April. Six teams in each league then advance to a four-round Major League Baseball postseason, postseason tournament in October, culminating in the World Series, a best-of-seven championship series between the two league champions first played in 1903. MLB is headquartered in Midtown Manhattan. Formed in 1876 and 1901, respectively, the NL and AL cemented their cooperation with the National Agreement in 1903, making MLB the oldest major professional sports league in the world. They remained le ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Power
In frequentist statistics, power is the probability of detecting a given effect (if that effect actually exists) using a given test in a given context. In typical use, it is a function of the specific test that is used (including the choice of test statistic and significance level), the sample size (more data tends to provide more power), and the effect size (effects or correlations that are large relative to the variability of the data tend to provide more power). More formally, in the case of a simple hypothesis test with two hypotheses, the power of the test is the probability that the test correctly rejects the null hypothesis (H_0) when the alternative hypothesis (H_1) is true. It is commonly denoted by 1-\beta, where \beta is the probability of making a type II error (a false negative) conditional on there being a true effect or association. Background Statistical testing uses data from samples to assess, or make inferences about, a statistical population. Fo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
