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Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of '' Superforecasting'' and ''Expert Political Judgment''), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. The project began as a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). It then extended its crowd wisdom to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to forecast future events. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information." History The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program at IARPA ( ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Philip E
Philip, also Phillip, is a male given name, derived from the Greek (''Philippos'', lit. "horse-loving" or "fond of horses"), from a compound of (''philos'', "dear", "loved", "loving") and (''hippos'', "horse"). Prominent Philips who popularized the name include kings of Macedonia and one of the apostles of early Christianity. ''Philip'' has many alternative spellings. One derivation often used as a surname is Phillips. It was also found during ancient Greek times with two Ps as Philippides and Philippos. It has many diminutive (or even hypocoristic) forms including Phil, Philly, Lip, Pip, Pep or Peps. There are also feminine forms such as Philippine and Philippa. Antiquity Kings of Macedon * Philip I of Macedon * Philip II of Macedon, father of Alexander the Great * Philip III of Macedon, half-brother of Alexander the Great * Philip IV of Macedon * Philip V of Macedon New Testament * Philip the Apostle * Philip the Evangelist Others * Philippus of Croton (c. 6th centur ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Philip Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including '' Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction''; '' Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?''; ''Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History''; and ''Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.'' Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. Biography Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergradua ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Washington Post
''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large national audience. Daily broadsheet editions are printed for D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. The ''Post'' was founded in 1877. In its early years, it went through several owners and struggled both financially and editorially. Financier Eugene Meyer purchased it out of bankruptcy in 1933 and revived its health and reputation, work continued by his successors Katharine and Phil Graham (Meyer's daughter and son-in-law), who bought out several rival publications. The ''Post'' 1971 printing of the Pentagon Papers helped spur opposition to the Vietnam War. Subsequently, in the best-known episode in the newspaper's history, reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein led the American press's investigation into what became known as the Watergate scandal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid digital subscribers. It also is a producer of popular podcasts such as '' The Daily''. Founded in 1851 by Henry Jarvis Raymond and George Jones, it was initially published by Raymond, Jones & Company. The ''Times'' has won 132 Pulitzer Prizes, the most of any newspaper, and has long been regarded as a national " newspaper of record". For print it is ranked 18th in the world by circulation and 3rd in the U.S. The paper is owned by the New York Times Company, which is publicly traded. It has been governed by the Sulzberger family since 1896, through a dual-class share structure after its shares became publicly traded. A. G. Sulzberger, the paper's publisher and the company's chairman, is the fifth generation of the family to head the pa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Economist
''The Economist'' is a British weekly newspaper printed in demitab format and published digitally. It focuses on current affairs, international business, politics, technology, and culture. Based in London, the newspaper is owned by The Economist Group, with its core editorial offices in the United States, as well as across major cities in continental Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In 2019, its average global print circulation was over 909,476; this, combined with its digital presence, runs to over 1.6 million. Across its social media platforms, it reaches an audience of 35 million, as of 2016. The newspaper has a prominent focus on data journalism and interpretive analysis over original reporting, to both criticism and acclaim. Founded in 1843, ''The Economist'' was first circulated by Scottish economist James Wilson to muster support for abolishing the British Corn Laws (1815–1846), a system of import tariffs. Over time, the newspaper's coverage expanded further into ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Research Spin-off
A research spin-off is a company that falls into at least one of the four following categories: #Companies that have an Equity investment from a national library or university #Companies that license technology from a public research institute or university #Companies that consider a university or public sector employee to have been a founder #Companies that have been established directly by a public research institution The two main research spin-off models in Russia are those developed from the Institutes of the Academy of Science and Svetlana. QinetiQ is an example of a research spin-off in the United Kingdom. See also * Government spin-off, civilian goods which are the result of military or governmental research ** NASA spin-off, a spin-off of technology that has been commercialized through NASA funding, research, licensing, facilities, or assistance * University spin-off University spin-offs (also known as university spin-outs) are companies that transform technological in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Association For The Advancement Of Artificial Intelligence
The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) is an international scientific society devoted to promote research in, and responsible use of, artificial intelligence. AAAI also aims to increase public understanding of artificial intelligence (AI), improve the teaching and training of AI practitioners, and provide guidance for research planners and funders concerning the importance and potential of current AI developments and future directions. History The organization was founded in 1979 under the name "American Association for Artificial Intelligence" and changed its name in 2007 to "Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence". It has in excess of 4,000 members worldwide. In its early history, the organization was presided over by notable figures in computer science such as Allen Newell, Edward Feigenbaum, Marvin Minsky and John McCarthy. The current president is Yolanda Gil, and the president elect is Bart Selman. Conferences and publica ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Justin Wolfers
Justin James Michael Wolfers, born in 1972, is an Australian economist and public policy scholar. He is professor of economics and public policy at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Career Wolfers holds a Ph.D. in Economics (1997–2001) and an Master of Economics (2000), both from Harvard University, and a Bachelor of Economics from the University of Sydney (1991–1994). He had a Fulbright Scholarship. Wolfers attended James Ruse Agricultural High School (1985–1990). He is noted for his research on happiness and its relation to income. Wolfers moved to the University of Michigan as professor of economics and public policy beginning in fall 2012 with his partner, fellow economist Betsey Stevenson.Peter Monaghan (2012) ''Much-Watched Couple in Economics Lands at U. of Michigan'' Chronicle of Higher Education'' Prior to coming to the University of Michigan, Wolfe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Carl Spetzler
Carl Spetzler is an American businessman, author, and academic. He is known for his research, publications, and expertise in the fields of decision quality and decision theory. Education Spetzler holds a BS in Chemical Engineering and an MBA and Ph.D. in economics and business administration from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Career Spetzler’s interest in decision quality began at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) at Stanford University (now known as SRI International), where he worked with decision theory pioneer Ronald A. Howard. While at SRI, Spetzler was instrumental in helping client Merrill Lynch establish their Cash Management Account (CMA) product in 1977. Revolutionary for its time, the CMA was a great success for Merrill Lynch and inspired its competitors to introduce similar products. Author Joe Nocera describes Spetzler’s key role in the development of the CMA in his book ''A Piece of the Action: How the Middle Class Joined the Money Class''. In 1 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Michael Mauboussin
Michael J. Mauboussin (born February 1964) heads consilient research at Morgan Stanley division Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Counterpoint Global, an open-end mutual fund. Previously, he was director of research at BlueMountain Capital and head of global financial strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advised clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making. He is also an adjunct professor of finance at the Columbia Business School and serves as chairman emeritus of the board of trustees at the Santa Fe Institute, a multi-disciplinary research center for complex adaptive systems, after serving as its chairman from 2012 until retiring in May 2021. Career Mauboussin first joined Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and later served as its managing director and chief U.S. investment strategist. He worked as a chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Robert Jervis
Robert Jervis (April 30, 1940 – December 9, 2021) was an American political scientist who was the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. Jervis was co-editor of the ''Cornell Studies in Security Affairs'', a series published by Cornell University Press. He is known for his contributions to political psychology, international relations theory, nuclear strategy, and intelligence studies. According to the Open Syllabus Project, Jervis is the twelfth most-frequently cited author on college syllabi for political science courses. Early life and education Robert Jervis was born in 1940. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree from Oberlin College in 1962. At Oberlin, he developed an interest in nuclear strategy, and was influenced by Thomas Schelling’s ''Strategy of Conflict'' and Glenn Snyder’s ''Deterrence and Defense.'' In 1962, he started his studies at University of California, Berkeley, where he stu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Vernon L. Smith). His empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases, and developed prospect theory. In 2011 he was named by '' Foreign Policy'' magazine in its list of top global thinkers. In the same year his book ''Thinking, Fast and Slow'', which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller. In 2015, ''The Economist'' listed him as the seventh most influential economist in the world. He is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton U ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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