Global Strategic Trends Programme
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Global Strategic Trends Programme
The Global Strategic Trends Programme was established in 2001 to research and forecast potential trends that shape and inform the future strategic context. It is published by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) which is under the UK's Strategic Command based in Shrivenham, Wiltshire. One of the main findings of "Global Strategic Trends out to 2040" is that the era out to 2040 will be a time of transition, characterised by instability both in the relations between states, and in the relations between groups within states. During this timeframe significant global trends will include; climate change, rapid population growth, resource scarcity, a resurgence in ideology and a shift in global power from West to East. The struggle to establish an effective system of global governance, is likely to be a central theme of the era. Recent Reviews of Global Strategic Trends The analysis conducted in Global Strategic Trends was recently highlighted in the UK Public Admin ...
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Development, Concepts And Doctrine Centre
The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is the United Kingdom (UK) Ministry of Defence’s (MOD's) think tank. History The DCDC, originally called the Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre (JDCC), was established as a result of the 1998 Strategic Defence Review. The UK recognised that it needed to have a clearer long-term vision of the way in which it expected it forces and their methods of operation to develop. Structure The DCDC is headed by a two-star officer, located at Shrivenham and is under the UK's Strategic Command but reports to the Vice Chief of the Defence Staff (VCDS) who sets its priorities and outputs. Outputs DCDC produces many publications relating to the future global environment. It also has a Doctrine Team responsible for writing and maintaining a range of joint operational level UK and NATO doctrine publications, and Strategy, Analysis and Research and Legal Teams such as the Global Strategic Trends Programme. Directors The list of Directors ...
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United Kingdom Strategic Command
The United Kingdom's Strategic Command (StratCom), previously known as Joint Forces Command (JFC), manages allocated joint capabilities from the three armed services. History Background In August 2010 the then Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, asked Lord Levene, a former Chief of Defence Procurement, to chair the Defence Reform Steering Group. The group's remit was to independently review defence and the structure and management of the Ministry of Defence. The group reported in June 2011, with a key recommendation being that a Joint Forces Command (JFC) should be created to manage and deliver specific joint capabilities and to take the lead on joint warfare development, learning from lessons and experimentation to advise on how the military should conduct joint operations in the future. The Defence Reform report also made the following recommendations: * Joint Forces Command should be led by a military four-star ranking officer who would have responsibility for commanding and ge ...
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Shrivenham
Shrivenham is a village and civil parish in the Vale of White Horse, Oxfordshire, England, about south-west of Faringdon. The village is close to the county boundary with Wiltshire and about east-northeast of Swindon. The 2011 Census recorded the parish population as 2,347. The parish is within the historic boundaries of Berkshire; the 1974 boundary changes transferred the Vale of White Horse to Oxfordshire for administrative purposes. History There has been human settlement at Shrivenham from at least 400 BC. The remains of a Roman villa have been uncovered nearby. Shrivenham was part of Shrivenham Hundred which included Ashbury, Buscot, Coleshill, Compton Beauchamp, Eaton Hastings, Longcot, Shrivenham, and Uffington. Shrivenham has numerous thatched cottages, stone walls, an historic pump and a parish church that is unusual for having been rebuilt in the 17th century. The village has three historic public houses: the Barrington Arms, The Crown and the Prince of Wales. ...
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Wiltshire
Wiltshire (; abbreviated Wilts) is a historic and ceremonial county in South West England with an area of . It is landlocked and borders the counties of Dorset to the southwest, Somerset to the west, Hampshire to the southeast, Gloucestershire to the north, Oxfordshire to the northeast and Berkshire to the east. The county town was originally Wilton, after which the county is named, but Wiltshire Council is now based in the county town of Trowbridge. Within the county's boundary are two unitary authority areas, Wiltshire and Swindon, governed respectively by Wiltshire Council and Swindon Borough Council. Wiltshire is characterised by its high downland and wide valleys. Salisbury Plain is noted for being the location of the Stonehenge and Avebury stone circles (which together are a UNESCO Cultural and World Heritage site) and other ancient landmarks, and as a training area for the British Army. The city of Salisbury is notable for its medieval cathedral. Swindon is the ...
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Horizon Scanning
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety. Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES), or view HS as a subset of ES, or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS. In summary, ES has key differences to HS. ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment. Etymology One of the first usages of the term ''horizon scanning'' as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, ''horizon scanning'' was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European works ...
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British Defence Policymaking
British may refer to: Peoples, culture, and language * British people, nationals or natives of the United Kingdom, British Overseas Territories, and Crown Dependencies. ** Britishness, the British identity and common culture * British English, the English language as spoken and written in the United Kingdom or, more broadly, throughout the British Isles * Celtic Britons, an ancient ethno-linguistic group * Brittonic languages, a branch of the Insular Celtic language family (formerly called British) ** Common Brittonic, an ancient language Other uses *''Brit(ish)'', a 2018 memoir by Afua Hirsch *People or things associated with: ** Great Britain, an island ** United Kingdom, a sovereign state ** Kingdom of Great Britain (1707–1800) ** United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland (1801–1922) See also * Terminology of the British Isles * Alternative names for the British * English (other) English usually refers to: * English language * English people English ma ...
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Prediction
A prediction (Latin ''præ-'', "before," and ''dicere'', "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. Future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments. Opinion In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion. A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field. The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way. Th ...
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Ministry Of Defence (United Kingdom)
The Ministry of Defence (MOD or MoD) is the department responsible for implementing the defence policy set by His Majesty's Government, and is the headquarters of the British Armed Forces. The MOD states that its principal objectives are to defend the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and its interests and to strengthen international peace and stability. The MOD also manages day-to-day running of the armed forces, contingency planning and defence procurement. The expenditure, administration and policy of the MOD are scrutinised by the Defence Select Committee, except for Defence Intelligence which instead falls under the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament. History During the 1920s and 1930s, British civil servants and politicians, looking back at the performance of the state during the First World War, concluded that there was a need for greater co-ordination between the three services that made up the armed forces of the United Kingdom: t ...
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Technology Assessment
Technology assessment (TA, German: , French: ) is a scientific, interactive, and communicative process that aims to contribute to the formation of public and political opinion on societal aspects of science and technology. This is a means of assessing and rating the new technology from the time when it was first developed to the time when it is potentially accepted by the public and authorities for further use. In essence, TA could be defined as "a form of policy research that examines short- and long term consequences (for example, societal, economic, ethical, legal) of the application of technology." General description TA is the study and evaluation of new technologies. It is a way of trying to forecast and prepare for the upcoming technological advancements and their repercussions to the society, and then make decisions based on the judgments. It is based on the conviction that new developments within, and discoveries by, the scientific community are relevant for the worl ...
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Technology Forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions. History Technology forecasting has existed more than a century, but it developed to an e ...
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