Energy Forecasting
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Energy Forecasting
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand ( load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES; hydro, wind, solar). Forecasting can be both expected price value and probabilistic forecasting. Background When electricity sectors were regulated, utility monopolies used short-term load forecasts to ensure the reliability of supply and long-term demand forecasts as the basis for planning and investing in new capacity. However, since the early 1990s, the process of deregulation and the introduction of competitive electricity markets have been reshaping the landscape of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. In many countries worldwide, electricity is now traded under market rules using spot and derivative contracts. At the corporate level, electricity load and price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision making mechanisms. The costs of over- or undercontract ...
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Electrical Load
An electrical load is an electrical component or portion of a circuit that consumes (active) electric power, such as electrical appliances and lights inside the home. The term may also refer to the power consumed by a circuit. This is opposed to a power source, such as a battery or generator, which ''produces'' power. The term is used more broadly in electronics for a device connected to a signal source, whether or not it consumes power. If an electric circuit has an output port, a pair of terminals that produces an electrical signal, the circuit connected to this terminal (or its input impedance) is the ''load''. For example, if a CD player is connected to an amplifier, the CD player is the source and the amplifier is the load. Load affects the performance of circuits with respect to output voltages or currents, such as in sensors, voltage sources, and amplifiers. Mains power outlets provide an easy example: they supply power at constant voltage, with electrical applianc ...
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Load Forecasting
Load or LOAD may refer to: Aeronautics and transportation *Load factor (aeronautics), the ratio of the lift of an aircraft to its weight *Passenger load factor, the ratio of revenue passenger miles to available seat miles of a particular transportation operation (e.g. a flight) Biology and medicine *Afterload, the maximum effect of a heartbeat driving blood mass out of the heart into the aorta and pulmonary arteries *Genetic load, of a population *Late-Onset Alzheimer's disease (acronym: LOAD), a chronic neurodegenerative disease *Parasite load, of an organism *Viral load, of organisms and populations Computing and electricity *Load (computing), a measure of how much processing a computer performs *Electrical load, a device connected to the output of a circuit *Electronic load, a simulated electrical load used for testing purposes *Invade-a-Load, was a fast loader routine used in software for the Commodore 64 computer; it was used in commercial computer games *Load balancing (co ...
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Energy Economics
Energy economics is a broad scientific subject area which includes topics related to supply and use of energy in societies. Considering the cost of energy services and associated value gives economic meaning to the efficiency at which energy can be produced. Energy services can be defined as functions that generate and provide energy to the “desired end services or states”. The efficiency of energy services is dependent on the engineered technology used to produce and supply energy. The goal is to minimise energy input required (e.g. kWh, mJ, see Units of Energy) to produce the energy service, such as lighting ( lumens), heating (temperature) and fuel (natural gas). The main sectors considered in energy economics are transportation and building, although it is relevant to a broad scale of human activities, including households and businesses at a microeconomic level and resource management and environmental impacts at a macroeconomic level. Due to diversity of issues a ...
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Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled b"Consensus Economics" Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently. The economist typically considers risks (i.e., events or conditions that can cause the result to vary from their initial estimates). ...
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Investment Analysis
In finance, valuation is the process of determining the present value (PV) of an asset. In a business context, it is often the hypothetical price that a third party would pay for a given asset. Valuations can be done on assets (for example, investments in marketable securities such as companies' shares and related rights, business enterprises, or intangible assets such as patents, data and trademarks) or on liabilities (e.g., bonds issued by a company). Valuations are needed for many reasons such as investment analysis, capital budgeting, merger and acquisition transactions, financial reporting, taxable events to determine the proper tax liability. Valuation overview Common terms for the value of an asset or liability are market value, fair value, and intrinsic value. The meanings of these terms differ. For instance, when an analyst believes a stock's intrinsic value is greater (or less) than its market price, an analyst makes a "buy" (or "sell") recommendation. Moreover, an a ...
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Finance
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability asse ...
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Electricity Price Forecasting
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on predicting the spot and forward prices in wholesale electricity markets. Over the last 15 years electricity price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision-making mechanisms at the corporate level. Since the early 1990s, the process of deregulation and the introduction of competitive electricity markets have been reshaping the landscape of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Throughout Europe, North America and Australia, electricity is now traded under market rules using spot and derivative contracts. However, electricity is a very special commodity: it is economically non-storable and power system stability requires a constant balance between production and consumption. At the same time, electricity demand depends on weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation, etc.) and the intensity of business and everyday activities ...
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Balance Sheet
In financial accounting, a balance sheet (also known as statement of financial position or statement of financial condition) is a summary of the financial balances of an individual or organization, whether it be a sole proprietorship, a business partnership, a corporation, private limited company or other organization such as government or not-for-profit entity. Assets, liabilities and ownership equity are listed as of a specific date, such as the end of its financial year. A balance sheet is often described as a "snapshot of a company's financial condition". Of the four basic financial statements, the balance sheet is the only statement which applies to a single point in time of a business's calendar year. A standard company balance sheet has two sides: assets on the left, and financing on the right–which itself has two parts; liabilities and ownership equity. The main categories of assets are usually listed first, and typically in order of liquidity. Assets are followed by ...
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Unit Commitment Problem In Electrical Power Production
The unit commitment problem (UC) in electrical power production is a large family of mathematical optimization problems where the production of a set of electrical generators is coordinated in order to achieve some common target, usually either matching the energy demand at minimum cost or maximizing revenue from electricity production. This is necessary because it is difficult to store electrical energy on a scale comparable with normal consumption; hence, each (substantial) variation in the consumption must be matched by a corresponding variation of the production. Coordinating generation units is a difficult task for a number of reasons: * the number of units can be large (hundreds or thousands); * there are several types of units, with significantly different energy production costs and constraints about how power can be produced; * generation is distributed across a vast geographical area (e.g., a country), and therefore the response of the electrical grid, itself a highly ...
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Solar Power Forecasting
Solar power forecasting is the process of gathering and analyzing data in order to predict solar power generation on various time horizons with the goal to mitigate the impact of solar intermittency. Solar power forecasts are used for efficient management of the Electrical grid, electric grid and for power trading. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. The intermittency issue has been successfully addressed and mitigated by solar forecasting in many cases. Information used for the solar power forecast usually includes the Sun´s path, the atmosphere, atmospheric conditions, the scattering of light and the characteristics of the solar energy plant. Generally, the solar forecasting techniques depend on the forecasting horizon * ''Nowcasting'' (forecasting 3–4 hours ahead), * ''Short-term forecasting'' (up to seven days ahead) an ...
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Wind Power Forecasting
A wind power forecast corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines (referred to as a wind farm) in the near future, up to a year. Forecast are usually expressed in terms of the available power of the wind farm, occasionally in units of energy, indicating the power production potential over a time interval. Time scales of forecasts Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application: * ''very short-term'' forecasts (from seconds up to minutes) are used for the real-time turbine control and electrical grid management, as well as for market clearing; * ''short-term'' forecasts (from 30 minutes up to hours) are used for dispatch planning, intelligent load shedding decisions; * ''medium-term'' forecasts (from 6 hours up to a day) are used for to make decisions for switching the turbine on or off for safety or conditions on the market; * ''long-term'' forecasts (from a day up t ...
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