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Decision Quality
Decision quality (DQ) is the quality of a decision at the moment the decision is made, regardless of its outcome. Decision quality concepts permit the assurance of both effectiveness and efficiency in analyzing decision problems. In that sense, decision quality can be seen as an extension to decision analysis. Decision quality also describes the process that leads to a high-quality decision. Properly implemented, the DQ process enables capturing maximum value in uncertain and complex scenarios. Decision and outcome Fundamental to all decision quality concepts is the distinction between the decision and its outcome. They are different because of the uncertainties when making a choice—a high quality decision can still result in a poor outcome, and vice versa. In the face of uncertainty, the decision maker only has control over the decision, but no control over the outcome of external circumstances. Consequently, the outcome of a decision does not allow an assessment about its q ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. History In 1931, mathematical philosopher Frank Ramsey pioneered the idea of subjective probability as a representation of an individual’s beliefs or uncertainties. Then, in the 1940s, mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern developed an axiomatic basis for utility theory as a way of expressing an individual ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Carl Spetzler
Carl Spetzler is an American businessman, author, and academic. He is known for his research, publications, and expertise in the fields of decision quality and decision theory. Education Spetzler holds a BS in Chemical Engineering and an MBA and Ph.D. in economics and business administration from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Career Spetzler’s interest in decision quality began at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) at Stanford University (now known as SRI International), where he worked with decision theory pioneer Ronald A. Howard. While at SRI, Spetzler was instrumental in helping client Merrill Lynch establish their Cash Management Account (CMA) product in 1977. Revolutionary for its time, the CMA was a great success for Merrill Lynch and inspired its competitors to introduce similar products. Author Joe Nocera describes Spetzler’s key role in the development of the CMA in his book ''A Piece of the Action: How the Middle Class Joined the Money Class''. In 1 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Making
In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either rational or irrational. The decision-making process is a reasoning process based on assumptions of values, preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker. Every decision-making process produces a final choice, which may or may not prompt action. Research about decision-making is also published under the label problem solving, particularly in European psychological research. Overview Decision-making can be regarded as a problem-solving activity yielding a solution deemed to be optimal, or at least satisfactory. It is therefore a process which can be more or less rational or irrational and can be based on explicit or tacit knowledge and beliefs. Tacit knowledge is often used to fill the gaps in complex decision-making processes. Usually, both o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uncertainty
Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science. Concepts Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. ;Measurement of uncertainty: A set of possible states or outc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bias
Bias is a disproportionate weight ''in favor of'' or ''against'' an idea or thing, usually in a way that is closed-minded, prejudicial, or unfair. Biases can be innate or learned. People may develop biases for or against an individual, a group, or a belief. In science and engineering, a bias is a systematic error. Statistical bias results from an unfair sampling of a population, or from an estimation process that does not give accurate results on average. Etymology The word appears to derive from Old Provençal into Old French ''biais'', "sideways, askance, against the grain". Whence comes French ''biais'', "a slant, a slope, an oblique". It seems to have entered English via the game of bowls, where it referred to balls made with a greater weight on one side. Which expanded to the figurative use, "a one-sided tendency of the mind", and, at first especially in law, "undue propensity or prejudice". Types of bias Cognitive biases A cognitive bias is a repeating or basic mi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Interdependence
Systems theory is the interdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or human-made. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, defined by its structure, function and role, and expressed through its relations with other systems. A system is "more than the sum of its parts" by expressing synergy or emergent behavior. Changing one component of a system may affect other components or the whole system. It may be possible to predict these changes in patterns of behavior. For systems that learn and adapt, the growth and the degree of adaptation depend upon how well the system is engaged with its environment and other contexts influencing its organization. Some systems support other systems, maintaining the other system to prevent failure. The goals of systems theory are to model a system's dynamics, constraints, conditions, and relations; and to elucidate principles (such as purpose, meas ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Trade-off
A trade-off (or tradeoff) is a situational decision that involves diminishing or losing one quality, quantity, or property of a set or design in return for gains in other aspects. In simple terms, a tradeoff is where one thing increases, and another must decrease. Tradeoffs stem from limitations of many origins, including simple physics – for instance, only a certain volume of objects can fit into a given space, so a full container must remove some items in order to accept any more, and vessels can carry a few large items or multiple small items. Tradeoffs also commonly refer to different configurations of a single item, such as the tuning of strings on a guitar to enable different notes to be played, as well as an allocation of time and attention towards different tasks. The concept of a tradeoff suggests a tactical or strategic choice made with full comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of each setup. An economic example is the decision to invest in stocks, which a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stakeholder (corporate)
In a corporation, a stakeholder is a member of "groups without whose support the organization would cease to exist", as defined in the first usage of the word in a 1963 internal memorandum at the Stanford Research Institute. The theory was later developed and championed by R. Edward Freeman in the 1980s. Since then it has gained wide acceptance in business practice and in theorizing relating to strategic management, corporate governance, business purpose and corporate social responsibility (CSR). The definition of corporate responsibilities through a classification of stakeholders to consider has been criticized as creating a false dichotomy between the "shareholder model" and the "stakeholders model" or a false analogy of the obligations towards shareholders and other interested parties. Types Any action taken by any organization or any group might affect those people who are linked with them in the private sector. For examples these are parents, children, customers, owners, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. History In 1931, mathematical philosopher Frank Ramsey pioneered the idea of subjective probability as a representation of an individual’s beliefs or uncertainties. Then, in the 1940s, mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern developed an axiomatic basis for utility theory as a way of expressing an individual ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Engineering
Decision intelligence is an engineering discipline that augments data science with theory from social science, decision theory, and managerial science. Its application provides a framework for best practices in organizational decision-making and processes for applying machine learning at scale. The basic idea is that decisions are based on our understanding of how actions lead to outcomes. Decision intelligence is a discipline for analyzing this chain of cause and effect, and decision modeling is a visual language for representing these chains. A related field decision engineering also investigates the improvement of decision-making processes but is not always as closely tied to data science. Origins and technologies Decision intelligence is based on the recognition that, in many organizations, decision-making could be improved if a more structured approach were used. Decision intelligence seeks to overcome a decision-making "complexity ceiling", which is characterized by a mis ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Model
A decision model in decision theory is the starting point for a decision method within a formal (axiomatic) system. Decision models contain at least one action axiom. An action is in the form "IF is true, THEN do ". An action axiom tests a condition (antecedent) and, if the condition has been met, then (consequent) it suggests (mandates) an action: from knowledge to action. A decision model may also be a network of connected decisions, information and knowledge that represents a decision-making approach that can be used repeatedly (such as one developed using the Decision Model and Notation standard). Excepting very simple situations, successful action axioms are used in an iterative manner. For example, for decision analysis, the sole action axiom occurs in the Evaluation stage of a four-step cycle: Formulate, Evaluate, Interpret/Appraise, Refine. Decision models are used both to model a decision being made once, as well as to model a repeatable decision-making approach that wi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Theory
Decision theory (or the theory of choice; not to be confused with choice theory) is a branch of applied probability theory concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical consequences to the outcome. There are three branches of decision theory: # Normative decision theory: Concerned with the identification of optimal decisions, where optimality is often determined by considering an ideal decision-maker who is able to calculate with perfect accuracy and is in some sense fully rational. # Prescriptive decision theory: Concerned with describing observed behaviors through the use of conceptual models, under the assumption that those making the decisions are behaving under some consistent rules. # Descriptive decision theory: Analyzes how individuals actually make the decisions that they do. Decision theory is closely related to the field of game theory and is an interdisciplinary topic, studied by econom ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
