David Firth (statistician)
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David Firth (statistician)
David Firth (born 22 December 1957) is a British statistician. He is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Statistics at the University of Warwick. Education Firth was born and went to school in Wakefield. He studied Mathematics at the University of Cambridge and completed his PhD in Statistics at Imperial College London, supervised by Sir David Cox. Research Firth is known for his development of a general method for reducing the bias of maximum likelihood estimation in parametric statistical models. The method has seen application in a wide variety of research fields, especially with logistic regression analysis where the reduced-bias estimates also have reduced variance and are always finite; the latter property overcomes the frequently encountered problem of separation, which causes maximum likelihood estimates to be infinite. The original paper published in 1993 has been cited more than 4000 times according tGoogle Scholar Together with a PhD student, Renée de Me ...
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Oxford University Press
Oxford University Press (OUP) is the university press of the University of Oxford. It is the largest university press in the world, and its printing history dates back to the 1480s. Having been officially granted the legal right to print books by decree in 1586, it is the second oldest university press after Cambridge University Press. It is a department of the University of Oxford and is governed by a group of 15 academics known as the Delegates of the Press, who are appointed by the vice-chancellor of the University of Oxford. The Delegates of the Press are led by the Secretary to the Delegates, who serves as OUP's chief executive and as its major representative on other university bodies. Oxford University Press has had a similar governance structure since the 17th century. The press is located on Walton Street, Oxford, opposite Somerville College, in the inner suburb of Jericho. For the last 500 years, OUP has primarily focused on the publication of pedagogical texts and ...
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Fellow Of The British Academy
Fellowship of the British Academy (FBA) is an award granted by the British Academy to leading academics for their distinction in the humanities and social sciences. The categories are: # Fellows – scholars resident in the United Kingdom # Corresponding Fellows – scholars resident overseas # Honorary Fellows – an honorary academic title The award of fellowship is based on published work and fellows may use the post-nominal letters ''FBA''. Examples of Fellows are Edward Rand, Mary Beard; Nicholas Stern, Baron Stern of Brentford; Michael Lobban; M. R. James; Friedrich Hayek; Lord Keynes; and Rowan Williams. See also * List of fellows of the British Academy References British Academy The British Academy is the United Kingdom's national academy for the humanities and the social sciences. It was established in 1902 and received its royal charter in the same year. It is now a fellowship of more than 1,000 leading scholars spa ... British Academy ...
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American Statistical Association
The American Statistical Association (ASA) is the main professional organization for statisticians and related professionals in the United States. It was founded in Boston, Massachusetts on November 27, 1839, and is the second oldest continuously operating professional society in the US (only the Massachusetts Medical Society, founded in 1781, is older). The ASA services statisticians, quantitative scientists, and users of statistics across many academic areas and applications. The association publishes a variety of journals and sponsors several international conferences every year. Mission The organization's mission is to promote good application of statistical science, specifically to: * support excellence in statistical practice, research, journals, and meetings * work for the improvement of statistical education at all levels * promote the proper application of statistics * anticipate and meet member needs * use the discipline of statistics to enhance human welfare * seek opp ...
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Royal Statistical Society
The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) is an established statistical society. It has three main roles: a British learned society for statistics, a professional body for statisticians and a charity which promotes statistics for the public good. History The society was founded in 1834 as the Statistical Society of London, though a perhaps unrelated London Statistical Society was in existence at least as early as 1824. At that time there were many provincial statistics societies throughout Britain, but most have not survived. The Manchester Statistical Society (which is older than the LSS) is a notable exception. The associations were formed with the object of gathering information about society. The idea of statistics referred more to political knowledge rather than a series of methods. The members called themselves "statists" and the original aim was "...procuring, arranging and publishing facts to illustrate the condition and prospects of society" and the idea of interpretin ...
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House Of Commons
The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. The leader of the majority party in the House of Commons by convention becomes the prime minister. Other parliaments have also had a lower house called a "House of Commons". History and naming The House of Commons of the Kingdom of England evolved from an undivided parliament to serve as the voice of the tax-paying subjects of the counties and of the boroughs. Knights of the shire, elected from each county, were usually landowners, while the borough members were often from the merchant classes. These members represented subjects of the Crown who were not Lords Temporal or Spiritual, who themselves sat in the House of Lords. The House of Commons gained its name because it represented communities (''communes''). Since the 19th century, ...
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United Kingdom General Elections Overview
The United Kingdom general elections overview is an overview of United Kingdom general election results since 1922. The 1922 election was the first election in the new United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, after the creation of the Irish Free State removed Southern Ireland from the UK. Summary Table The table below gives a summary of the results of each general election since 1922 for the main political parties. Parties with the highest vote share and the most seats at each election are highlighted in bold. More comprehensive detail showing all parties which fielded candidates are shown in the subsequent sections. Please refer to notes below the table. Notes 1Includes Ulster Unionists up to and including the 1970 election, and the autonomous Unionist Party in Scotland until 1964. Also includes the Liberal National Party (and joint candidates) from 1945 to 1966. 2Liberal Party up to 1979; SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983 and 1987; Liberal Democrats fro ...
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John Curtice
Sir John Kevin Curtice (born 10 December 1953) is a British political scientist who is currently professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research. He is particularly interested in electoral behaviour and researching political and social attitudes. He took a keen interest in the debate about Scottish independence. Early life Curtice was born on 10 December 1953. He grew up in St Austell and was educated at Truro School and Magdalen College, Oxford, where he read politics, philosophy and economics, and later transferred to Nuffield College as a postgraduate. Commitments and positions He serves as president of the British Polling Council, vice-chair of the Economic and Social Data Service's Advisory Committee and is a member of the editorial board of the '' Journal of Elections'', the Executive Committee of the British Politics Section of the American Political Science Association, and the Policy Ad ...
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Separation (statistics)
In statistics, separation is a phenomenon associated with models for dichotomous or categorical outcomes, including logistic and probit regression. Separation occurs if the predictor (or a linear combination of some subset of the predictors) is associated with only one outcome value when the predictor range is split at a certain value. The phenomenon For example, if the predictor ''X'' is continuous, and the outcome ''y'' = 1 for all observed ''x'' > 2. If the outcome values are perfectly determined by the predictor (e.g., ''y'' = 0 when ''x'' ≤ 2) then the condition "complete separation" is said to occur. If instead there is some overlap (e.g., ''y'' = 0 when ''x'' < 2, but ''y'' has observed values of 0 and 1 when ''x'' = 2) then "quasi-complete separation" occurs. A 2 × 2 table with an empty ...
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Variance
In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its population mean or sample mean. Variance is a measure of dispersion, meaning it is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out from their average value. Variance has a central role in statistics, where some ideas that use it include descriptive statistics, statistical inference, hypothesis testing, goodness of fit, and Monte Carlo sampling. Variance is an important tool in the sciences, where statistical analysis of data is common. The variance is the square of the standard deviation, the second central moment of a distribution, and the covariance of the random variable with itself, and it is often represented by \sigma^2, s^2, \operatorname(X), V(X), or \mathbb(X). An advantage of variance as a measure of dispersion is that it is more amenable to algebraic manipulation than other measures of dispersion such as the expected absolute deviation; for e ...
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Logistic Regression
In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the probability of an event taking place by having the log-odds for the event be a linear function (calculus), linear combination of one or more independent variables. In regression analysis, logistic regression (or logit regression) is estimation theory, estimating the parameters of a logistic model (the coefficients in the linear combination). Formally, in binary logistic regression there is a single binary variable, binary dependent variable, coded by an indicator variable, where the two values are labeled "0" and "1", while the independent variables can each be a binary variable (two classes, coded by an indicator variable) or a continuous variable (any real value). The corresponding probability of the value labeled "1" can vary between 0 (certainly the value "0") and 1 (certainly the value "1"), hence the labeling; the function that converts log-odds to probability is the logistic function, h ...
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Statistical Models
A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process. A statistical model is usually specified as a mathematical relationship between one or more random variables and other non-random variables. As such, a statistical model is "a formal representation of a theory" ( Herman Adèr quoting Kenneth Bollen). All statistical hypothesis tests and all statistical estimators are derived via statistical models. More generally, statistical models are part of the foundation of statistical inference. Introduction Informally, a statistical model can be thought of as a statistical assumption (or set of statistical assumptions) with a certain property: that the assumption allows us to calculate the probability of any event. As an example, consider a pair of ordinary six- ...
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference. If the likelihood function is differentiable, the derivative test for finding maxima can be applied. In some cases, the first-order conditions of the likelihood function can be solved analytically; for instance, the ordinary least squares estimator for a linear regression model maximizes the likelihood when all observed outcomes are assumed to have Normal distributions with the same variance. From the perspective of Bayesian inference, M ...
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