Critical Transition
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Critical Transition
Critical transitions are abrupt shifts in the state of ecosystems, the climate, financial systems or other complex dynamical systems that may occur when changing conditions pass a critical or bifurcation point. As such, they are a particular type of regime shift. Recovery from such shifts may require more than a simple return to the conditions at which a transition occurred, a phenomenon called hysteresis. Early-warning signals and critical slowing down Significant efforts have been made to identify early-warning signals of critical transitions.Scheffer, M., et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. ''Nature'' 461, 53–59Dakos, V., et al. (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. ''P Natl Acad Sci Usa'' 105, 14308–14312van Nes, E.H., and Scheffer, M. (2007) Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift. ''Am. Nat.'' 169, 738–747Hastings, A., and Wysham, D.B. (2010) Regime shifts ...
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Ecosystem
An ecosystem (or ecological system) consists of all the organisms and the physical environment with which they interact. These biotic and abiotic components are linked together through nutrient cycles and energy flows. Energy enters the system through photosynthesis and is incorporated into plant tissue. By feeding on plants and on one another, animals play an important role in the movement of matter and energy through the system. They also influence the quantity of plant and microbial biomass present. By breaking down dead organic matter, decomposers release carbon back to the atmosphere and facilitate nutrient cycling by converting nutrients stored in dead biomass back to a form that can be readily used by plants and microbes. Ecosystems are controlled by external and internal Environmental factor, factors. External factors such as climate, parent material which forms the soil and topography, control the overall structure of an ecosystem but are not themselves influe ...
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Abrupt Climate Change
An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing, though it may include sudden forcing events such as meteorite impacts. Abrupt climate change therefore is a variation beyond the variability of a climate. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, Younger Dryas, Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. The term is also used within the context of climate change to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime, possibly as the result of feedback loops within the climate system or tipping points. Timescales of events described as 'abrupt' may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden wa ...
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Percolation Theory
In statistical physics and mathematics, percolation theory describes the behavior of a network when nodes or links are added. This is a geometric type of phase transition, since at a critical fraction of addition the network of small, disconnected clusters merge into significantly larger connected, so-called spanning clusters. The applications of percolation theory to materials science and in many other disciplines are discussed here and in the articles network theory and percolation. Introduction A representative question (and the source of the name) is as follows. Assume that some liquid is poured on top of some porous material. Will the liquid be able to make its way from hole to hole and reach the bottom? This physical question is modelled mathematically as a three-dimensional network of vertices, usually called "sites", in which the edge or "bonds" between each two neighbors may be open (allowing the liquid through) with probability , or closed with probability , ...
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Cascade Effect (ecology)
An ecological cascade effect is a series of secondary extinctions that are triggered by the primary extinction of a key species in an ecosystem. Secondary extinctions are likely to occur when the threatened species are: dependent on a few specific food sources, mutualistic (dependent on the key species in some way), or forced to coexist with an invasive species that is introduced to the ecosystem. Species introductions to a foreign ecosystem can often devastate entire communities, and even entire ecosystems. These exotic species monopolize the ecosystem's resources, and since they have no natural predators to decrease their growth, they are able to increase indefinitely. Olsen et al. showed that exotic species have caused lake and estuary ecosystems to go through cascade effects due to loss of algae, crayfish, mollusks, fish, amphibians, and birds. However, the principal cause of cascade effects is the loss of top predators as the key species. As a result of this loss, a dra ...
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Ecosystem Collapse
An ecosystem is considered collapsed when its unique biotic (characteristic biota) or abiotic features are lost from all previous occurrences. Ecosystem collapse causes ecological collapse within a system; essentially altering its stability, resilience, and diversity levels. It is, however, possible to reverse through careful restoration, and is thus not completely equivalent to species extinction. It occurs after a system has reached a so-called ecological 'tipping point', or crossed a critical threshold, and can no longer adequately respond to rapid changes in ecological conditions; either due to the suddenness or the scale of the changes. It is important to note that—while certain types of accelerated ecosystem collapse or mass ecosystem collapse are typically viewed in a negative light—rapid environmental change and collapse have always been an integral part of the evolution and dynamics of the biosphere and marine ecosystems throughout geologic time. These processes hi ...
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Ecological Threshold
Ecological threshold is the point at which a relatively small change or disturbance in external conditions causes a rapid change in an ecosystem. When an ecological threshold has been passed, the ecosystem may no longer be able to return to its state by means of its inherent resilience . Crossing an ecological threshold often leads to rapid change of ecosystem health. Ecological threshold represent a non-linearity of the responses in ecological or biological systems to pressures caused by human activities or natural processes. Critical load, regime shift, critical transition and tipping point are examples of other closely related terms. Characteristics Thresholds can be characterized as points or as zones. Zone-type thresholds imply a gradual shift or transition from one state to another rather than an abrupt change at a specific point. Ecological thresholds have caught attention because many cases of catastrophic worsening of conditions have proved to be difficult or nearly i ...
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Ecological Resilience
In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Such perturbations and disturbances can include stochastic events such as fires, flooding, windstorms, insect population explosions, and human activities such as deforestation, fracking of the ground for oil extraction, pesticide sprayed in soil, and the introduction of exotic plant or animal species. Disturbances of sufficient magnitude or duration can profoundly affect an ecosystem and may force an ecosystem to reach a threshold beyond which a different regime of processes and structures predominates. When such thresholds are associated with a critical or bifurcation point, these regime shifts may also be referred to as critical transitions. Human activities that adversely affect ecological resilience such as reduction of biodiversity, exploitation of natural resources, pollution, land use, and anthropogenic climate change are in ...
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Deforestation And Climate Change
Deforestation is a primary Causes of global warming, contributor to climate change. Land use changes, especially in the form of deforestation, are the second largest Anthropogenic climate change, anthropogenic source of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, after fossil fuel combustion. Greenhouse gases are emitted during combustion of forest Biomass (ecology), biomass and decomposition of remaining plant material and soil carbon. Global models and national greenhouse gas inventories give similar results for deforestation emissions. , deforestation is responsible for about 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation are accelerating. Growing forests are a carbon sink with additional potential to Climate change mitigation, mitigate the effects of climate change. Some of the effects of climate change, such as more wildfires, may increase deforestation. Deforestation comes in many forms: wildfire, agricultural clearcutting, livestock ranchi ...
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Tipping Points In The Climate System
In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society. Tipping behaviour is found across the climate system, in ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere. Tipping points are often, but not necessarily, abrupt. For example, with average global warming somewhere between 0.8 and 3 °C, the Greenland ice sheet passes a tipping point and is doomed, but the melt would take place over millennia. Tipping points are possible at today's global warming of just over 1 °C above preindustrial times, and highly probable above 2 °C of global warming. The geological record shows many abrupt changes that suggest tipping points may have been crossed in ancient times. It is possible that some tipping points are close to being crossed or have already been crossed, like tho ...
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Deforestation Of The Amazon Rainforest
The Amazon rainforest is the largest rainforest in the world, covering an area of 3,000,000 km2 (2,316,612.95 square miles). It represents over half of the planet's rainforests and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world. This region includes territory belonging to nine nations. The majority of the forest is contained within Brazil, with 60%, followed by Peru with 13%, Colombia with 10%, and with minor amounts in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The cattle sector of the Brazilian Amazon, incentivized by the international beef and leather trades, has been responsible for about 80% of all deforestation in the region,Adam, David (May 31, 2009)"British supermarkets accused over destruction of Amazon rainforest" ''The Guardian''. Retrieved October 21, 2015. or about 14% of the world's total annual deforestation, making it the world's largest single driver of deforestation.
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Emerging Signals Of Declining Forest Resilience Under Climate Change
''Emerging'' is the title of the only album by the Phil Keaggy Band, released in 1977 on NewSong Records. The album's release was delayed due to a shift in record pressing plant priorities following the death of Elvis Presley. The album was re-released on CD in 2000 as ''ReEmerging'' with one original track omitted and four newly recorded songs by the band members. Track listing (1977 release) All songs written by Phil Keaggy, unless otherwise noted. Side one # "Theme" (Phil Madeira) – 1:25 (instrumental) # "Where Is My Maker?" – 2:25 # "Another Try" – 4:55 # "Ryan's Song" (inspired by a poem by Bill Clarke) – 3:09 # "Struck By the Love" (Madeira) – 5:43 (lead vocal: Phil Madeira) Side two # "Turned On the Light" – 4:57 # "Sorry" – 4:09 # "Take a Look Around" – 5:16 # "Gentle Eyes" – 5:29 (omitted from 2000 reissue) Track listing (2000 re-release) All songs written by Phil Keaggy, unless otherwise noted. # "Theme" (Madeira) # "Where Is My Maker?" # "Anothe ...
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Climate
Climate is the long-term weather pattern in an area, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorological variables that are commonly measured are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, and precipitation. In a broader sense, climate is the state of the components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere and the interactions between them. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude/longitude, terrain, altitude, land use and nearby water bodies and their currents. Climates can be classified according to the average and typical variables, most commonly temperature and precipitation. The most widely used classification scheme was the Köppen climate classification. The Thornthwaite system, in use since 1948, incorporates evapotranspiration along wit ...
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