Casualty Prediction
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Casualty Prediction
Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an epidemic, natural disaster or act of war such as the explosion of a nuclear weapon, chemical weapon or biological weapon. (Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.) The New York University Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project applies agent-based modelling to simulate the effects of a large-scale disaster. Their initial project focused on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths. Blast casualty prediction is routinely performed in the planning of military operations. For example, a cruise missile attack was considered by the United States in 1998 for Tarnak Farms in order to kill Osama bin Laden. However, not enough was known about the collateral damage effects of cruise missiles on mud huts. At the time there were estim ...
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Epidemic
An epidemic (from Ancient Greek, Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of patients among a given population within an area in a short period of time. Epidemics of infectious diseases are generally caused by several factors including a significant change in the ecology of the areal population (e.g., increased stress maybe additional reason or increase in the density of a vector species), the introduction of an emerging pathogen to an areal population (by movement of pathogen or host) or an unexpected genetic change that is in the pathogen reservoir. Generally, epidemics concerns with the patterns of infectious disease spread. An epidemic may occur when host immunity to either an established pathogen or newly emerging novel pathogen is suddenly reduced below that found in the endemic equilibrium and the transmission threshold is exceeded. For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in ...
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Cruise Missile
A cruise missile is a guided missile used against terrestrial or naval targets that remains in the atmosphere and flies the major portion of its flight path at approximately constant speed. Cruise missiles are designed to deliver a large warhead over long distances with high precision. Modern cruise missiles are capable of travelling at high subsonic, supersonic, or hypersonic speeds, are self-navigating, and are able to fly on a non-ballistic, extremely low-altitude trajectory. History The idea of an "aerial torpedo" was shown in the British 1909 film ''The Airship Destroyer'' in which flying torpedoes controlled wirelessly are used to bring down airships bombing London. In 1916, the American aviator Lawrence Sperry built and patented an "aerial torpedo", the Hewitt-Sperry Automatic Airplane, a small biplane carrying a TNT charge, a Sperry autopilot and a barometric altitude control. Inspired by the experiments, the United States Army developed a similar flying bomb cal ...
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Military Science
Military science is the study of military processes, institutions, and behavior, along with the study of warfare, and the theory and application of organized coercive force. It is mainly focused on theory, method, and practice of producing military capability in a manner consistent with national defense policy. Military science serves to identify the strategic, political, economic, psychological, social, operational, technological, and tactical elements necessary to sustain relative advantage of military force; and to increase the likelihood and favorable outcomes of victory in peace or during a war. Military scientists include theorists, researchers, experimental scientists, applied scientists, designers, engineers, test technicians, and other military personnel. Military personnel obtain weapons, equipment, and training to achieve specific strategic goals. Military science is also used to establish enemy capability as part of technical intelligence. In military history, ...
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Emergency Management
Emergency management or disaster management is the managerial function charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters. Emergency management, despite its name, does not actually focus on the management of emergencies, which can be understood as minor events with limited impacts and are managed through the day to day functions of a community. Instead, emergency management focuses on the management of disasters, which are events that produce more impacts than a community can handle on its own. The management of disasters tends to require some combination of activity from individuals and households, organizations, local, and/or higher levels of government. Although many different terminologies exist globally, the activities of emergency management can be generally categorized into preparedness, response, mitigation, and recovery, although other terms such as disaster risk reduction and prevention are also common. Th ...
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Civilian Casualties
Civilian casualties occur when civilians are killed or injured by non-civilians, mostly law enforcement officers, military personnel, rebel group forces, or terrorists. Under the law of war, it refers to civilians who perish or suffer wounds as a result of wartime acts. The term is generally applied to situations in which violence is committed in pursuit of political goals. During periods of armed conflict, there are structures, actors, and processes at a number of levels that affect the likelihood of violence against civilians. The term "civilian casualties" is sometimes used in non-military situations, for example to distinguish casualties to police vs. to criminals such as bank robbers. Overview In times of armed conflict, despite numerous advancements in technology, the European Union's European Security Strategy, adopted by the European Council in Brussels in December 2003, stated that since 1990, almost 4 million people have died in wars, 90% of them civilians. Howev ...
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Ghost Wars
''Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001'', abbreviated as ''Ghost Wars'', is a book written by Steve Coll, published in 2004 by Penguin Press. It won the 2005 Pulitzer Prize for General Non-Fiction. Summary The book provides an in-depth account of Central Intelligence Agency activity in Afghanistan from the time of the Soviet invasion to the aftermath of attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Coll particularly notes the interplay between the CIA and its counterpart in Pakistan, Inter-Services Intelligence, which used CIA and Saudi Arabian funding to build militant Mujahideen training camps along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border in an effort to create radicalized, militant fighters sourced from many Arab countries to attack the Soviet occupation. Invariably, as Coll shows, this decision had long-lasting effects on the region. Expanded edition and follow-up Penguin published a sligh ...
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Hut (dwelling)
A hut is a small dwelling, which may be constructed of various local materials. Huts are a type of vernacular architecture because they are built of readily available materials such as wood, snow, ice, stone, grass, palm leaves, branches, hides, fabric, or mud using techniques passed down through the generations. The construction of a hut is generally less complex than that of a house (durable, well-built dwelling) but more so than that of a shelter (place of refuge or safety) such as a tent and is used as temporary or seasonal shelter or as a permanent dwelling in some indigenous societies.Oxford English Dictionary Second Edition on CD-ROM (v. 4.0) © Oxford University Press 2009 Huts exist in practically all nomadic cultures. Some huts are transportable and can stand most conditions of weather. Word The term is often employed by people who consider non-western style homes in tropical and sub-tropical areas to be crude or primitive, but often the designs are based on t ...
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Collateral Damage
Collateral damage is any death, injury, or other damage inflicted that is an incidental result of an activity. Originally coined by military operations, it is now also used in non-military contexts. Since the development of precision guided munitions in the 1970s, military forces often claim to have gone to great lengths to minimize collateral damage. Critics of use of the term "collateral damage" see it as a euphemism that dehumanizes non-combatants killed or injured during combat, used to reduce the perceived culpability of military leadership in failing to prevent non-combatant casualties. Collateral damage does not include civilian casualties caused by military operations that are intended to terrorize or kill enemy civilians (e.g., the bombing of Chongqing during World War II). Etymology The word "collateral" comes from medieval Latin word ''collateralis'', from ''col-'', "together with" + ''lateralis'' (from ''latus'', ''later-'', "side" ) and is otherwise mainly use ...
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Osama Bin Laden
Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden (10 March 1957 – 2 May 2011) was a Saudi-born extremist militant who founded al-Qaeda and served as its leader from 1988 until Killing of Osama bin Laden, his death in 2011. Ideologically a Pan-Islamism, pan-Islamist, his group is designated as a List of designated terrorist groups, terrorist group by the United Nations Security Council, the NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union, and various countries. Belonging to the wealthy Bin Laden family, Osama bin Laden was born in Saudi Arabia. His father was Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden, a Saudi millionaire from Hadhramaut, Yemen, and the founder of the construction company, Saudi Binladin Group. His mother, Hamida al-Attas, Alia Ghanem, was from a secular middle-class family in Latakia, Syria. He studied at university in the country until 1979, when he joined Islamic Unity of Afghanistan Mujahideen, Mujahideen forces in Pakistan Soviet–Afghan War, fighting against ...
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Tarnak Farms
Tarnak Farms refers to a former Afghan training camp near Kandahar, which served as a base to Osama bin Laden and his followers from 1998 to 2001. 9-11 hijackers believed to have trained at Tarnak Farms Home to bin Laden In 1998, bin Laden moved his followers from Nazim Jihad to Tarnak Farms following Northern Alliance threats to attack Jalalabad. Video of Tarnak Farms in 2000 made by the Central Intelligence Agency appeared to show bin Laden at the location. The administration of U.S. President Bill Clinton considered seizing bin Laden at Tarnak Farm, but the mission was never carried out due to concerns about killing innocent women and children, as well as legal disagreements within the administration. Mayer, Jane, "The Dark Side", 2008. The Tarnak Farms facility housed an al Qaida poison and explosive training laboratory and an advanced operational training camp. Operatives of al Qaida received advanced operational training at the facility, including urban assault. Ta ...
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Military Operations
A military operation is the coordinated military actions of a state, or a non-state actor, in response to a developing situation. These actions are designed as a military plan to resolve the situation in the state or actor's favor. Operations may be of a combat or non-combat nature and may be referred to by a code name for the purpose of national security. Military operations are often known for their more generally accepted common usage names than their actual operational objectives. Types of military operations Military operations can be classified by the scale and scope of force employment, and their impact on the wider conflict. The scope of military operations can be: * Theater: this describes an operation over a large, often continental, area of operation and represents a strategic national commitment to the conflict, such as Operation Barbarossa, with general goals that encompass areas of consideration outside the military, such as the economic and political impact of m ...
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Natural Disaster
A natural disaster is "the negative impact following an actual occurrence of natural hazard in the event that it significantly harms a community". A natural disaster can cause loss of life or damage property, and typically leaves some economic damage in its wake. The severity of the damage depends on the affected population's resilience and on the infrastructure available. Examples of natural hazards include: avalanche, coastal flooding, cold wave, drought, earthquake, hail, heat wave, hurricane (tropical cyclone), ice storm, landslide, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornado, typhoon, tsunami, volcanic activity, wildfire, winter weather. In modern times, the divide between natural, man-made and man-accelerated disasters is quite difficult to draw. Human choices and activities like architecture, fire, resource management or even climate change potentially play a role in causing "natural disasters". In fact, the term "natural disaster" has been called a misnom ...
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