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Calculus Of Predispositions
Calculus of predispositions is a basic part of predispositioning theory and belongs to the indeterministic procedures. Overview "The key component of any indeterministic procedure is the evaluation of a position. Since it is impossible to devise a deterministic chain linking the inter-mediate state with the outcome of the game, the most complex component of any indeterministic method is assessing these intermediate stages. It is precisely the function of predispositions to assess the impact of an intermediate state upon the future course of development."Katsenelinboigen, Aron. ''The Concept of Indeterminism and Its Applications: Economics, Social Systems, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Aesthetics'', Praeger: Westport, Connecticut, 1997, p. 33. According to Aron Katsenelinboigen, calculus of predispositions is another method of computing probability. Both methods may lead to the same results and, thus, can be interchangeable. However, it is not always possible to interchange ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Predispositioning Theory
Predispositioning theory, in the field of decision theory and systems theory, is a theory focusing on the stages between a complete order and a complete disorder. Predispositioning theory was founded by Aron Katsenelinboigen (1927–2005), a professor in the Wharton School who dealt with indeterministic systems such as chess, business, economics, and other fields of knowledge and also made an essential step forward in elaboration of styles and methods of decision-making. Predispositioning theory Predispositioning theory is focused on the intermediate stage between a complete order and a complete disorder. According to Katsenelinboigen, the system develops gradually, going through several stages, starting with incomplete and inconsistent linkages between its elements and ending with complete and consistent ones. "''Mess''. The zero phase can be called a mess because it contains no linkages between the system's elements. Such a definition of mess as ‘a disorderly, un-tidy, or dir ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Indeterministic
Indeterminism is the idea that events (or certain events, or events of certain types) are not caused, or do not cause deterministically. It is the opposite of determinism and related to chance. It is highly relevant to the philosophical problem of free will, particularly in the form of libertarianism. In science, most specifically quantum theory in physics, indeterminism is the belief that no event is certain and the entire outcome of anything is probabilistic. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle and the "Born rule", proposed by Max Born, are often starting points in support of the indeterministic nature of the universe. Indeterminism is also asserted by Sir Arthur Eddington, and Murray Gell-Mann. Indeterminism has been promoted by the French biologist Jacques Monod's essay "''Chance and Necessity''". The physicist-chemist Ilya Prigogine argued for indeterminism in complex systems. Necessary but insufficient causation Indeterminists do not have to deny that causes exist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Aron Katsenelinboigen
Aron Iosifovich Katsenelinboigen (russian: Арон Иосифович Каценелинбойген; September 2, 1927 – July 30, 2005) was a founder of predispositioning theory, a subject in decision theory and systems theory that models development in the context of uncertainty. Career Katsenelinboigen was born in Izyaslavl in the Ukrainian SSR. At fourteen, he enrolled at the Uzbekistan Institute of Economics, transferring four years later, in 1945, to the Moscow State Institute of Economics. There he graduated the following year and spent a further three years pursuing post-graduate work. He received a PhD in Economics in 1957 and became a Doctor of Economic Science in 1966. In 1973, Katsenelinboigen emigrated to the United States, where he continued to research indeterministic economics and develop predispositioning theory. He became a United States citizen in 1979. He also began to explore the application of predispositioning theory in fields other than econ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an Event (probability theory), event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty."Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics, Volume 1: Distribution Theory", Alan Stuart and Keith Ord, 6th Ed, (2009), .William Feller, ''An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications'', (Vol 1), 3rd Ed, (1968), Wiley, . The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frequency Probability
Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of a sequence, limit of its relative Frequency_(statistics), frequency in many trials (the long-run probability). Probabilities can be found (in principle) by a repeatable objective process (and are thus ideally devoid of opinion). The continued use of frequentist methods in scientific inference, however, has been called into question. The development of the frequentist account was motivated by the problems and paradoxes of the previously dominant viewpoint, the Classical definition of probability, classical interpretation. In the classical interpretation, probability was defined in terms of the principle of indifference, based on the natural symmetry of a problem, so, ''e.g.'' the probabilities of dice games arise from the natural symmetric 6-sidedness of the cube. This classical interpretation stumbled at any statistical problem that has no natural symmetr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Predispositioning Theory
Predispositioning theory, in the field of decision theory and systems theory, is a theory focusing on the stages between a complete order and a complete disorder. Predispositioning theory was founded by Aron Katsenelinboigen (1927–2005), a professor in the Wharton School who dealt with indeterministic systems such as chess, business, economics, and other fields of knowledge and also made an essential step forward in elaboration of styles and methods of decision-making. Predispositioning theory Predispositioning theory is focused on the intermediate stage between a complete order and a complete disorder. According to Katsenelinboigen, the system develops gradually, going through several stages, starting with incomplete and inconsistent linkages between its elements and ending with complete and consistent ones. "''Mess''. The zero phase can be called a mess because it contains no linkages between the system's elements. Such a definition of mess as ‘a disorderly, un-tidy, or dir ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Karl Popper
Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian-British philosopher, academic and social commentator. One of the 20th century's most influential philosophers of science, Popper is known for his rejection of the classical inductivist views on the scientific method in favour of empirical falsification. According to Popper, a theory in the empirical sciences can never be proven, but it can be falsified, meaning that it can (and should) be scrutinised with decisive experiments. Popper was opposed to the classical justificationist account of knowledge, which he replaced with critical rationalism, namely "the first non-justificational philosophy of criticism in the history of philosophy". In political discourse, he is known for his vigorous defence of liberal democracy and the principles of social criticism that he believed made a flourishing open society possible. His political philosophy embraced ideas from major democratic political ideologies, inc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Interpretations
The word probability has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure the real, physical, tendency of something to occur, or is it a measure of how strongly one believes it will occur, or does it draw on both these elements? In answering such questions, mathematicians interpret the probability values of probability theory. There are two broad categories The taxonomy of probability interpretations given here is similar to that of the longer and more complete Interpretations of Probability article in the online Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. References to that article include a parenthetic section number where appropriate. A partial outline of that article: * Section 2: Criteria of adequacy for the interpretations of probability * Section 3: ** 3.1 Classical Probability ** 3.2 Logical Probability ** 3.3 Subjective Probability ** 3.4 Frequency Interpretations ** 3.5 Propensity Interpretations "T ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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