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Bertrand's Box Paradox
Bertrand's box paradox is a veridical paradox in elementary probability theory. It was first posed by Joseph Bertrand in his 1889 work Calcul des Probabilités'. There are three boxes: # a box containing two gold coins, # a box containing two silver coins, # a box containing one gold coin and one silver coin. The question is to calculate the probability, after choosing a box at random and withdrawing one coin at random, if that happens to be a gold coin, of the next coin drawn from the same box also being a gold coin. A veridical paradox is when the correct solution to a puzzle appears to be counterintuitive. It may seem intuitive that the probability that the remaining coin is gold should be , but the probability is actually . However, this is not the paradox Bertrand referred to. He showed that if were correct, it would lead to a contradiction, so cannot be correct. This simple but counterintuitive puzzle is used as a standard example in teaching probability theory. The s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Three Mystery Boxes
3 is a number, numeral, and glyph. 3, three, or III may also refer to: * AD 3, the third year of the AD era * 3 BC, the third year before the AD era * March, the third month Books * ''Three of Them'' (Russian: ', literally, "three"), a 1901 novel by Maksim Gorky * ''Three'', a 1946 novel by William Sansom * ''Three'', a 1970 novel by Sylvia Ashton-Warner * Three (novel), ''Three'' (novel), a 2003 suspense novel by Ted Dekker * Three (comics), ''Three'' (comics), a graphic novel by Kieron Gillen. * ''3'', a 2004 novel by Julie Hilden * ''Three'', a collection of three plays by Lillian Hellman * ''Three By Flannery O'Connor'', collection Flannery O'Connor bibliography Brands * 3 (telecommunications), a global telecommunications brand ** 3Arena, indoor amphitheatre in Ireland operating with the "3" brand ** 3 Hong Kong, telecommunications company operating in Hong Kong ** Three Australia, Australian telecommunications company ** Three Ireland, Irish telecommunications company * ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Paradox
A paradox is a logically self-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one's expectation. It is a statement that, despite apparently valid reasoning from true premises, leads to a seemingly self-contradictory or a logically unacceptable conclusion. A paradox usually involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time. They result in "persistent contradiction between interdependent elements" leading to a lasting "unity of opposites". In logic, many paradoxes exist that are known to be invalid arguments, yet are nevertheless valuable in promoting critical thinking, while other paradoxes have revealed errors in definitions that were assumed to be rigorous, and have caused axioms of mathematics and logic to be re-examined. One example is Russell's paradox, which questions whether a "list of all lists that do not contain themselves" would include itself, and showed that attempts to found set theory on the identificatio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in probab ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Joseph Bertrand
Joseph Louis François Bertrand (; 11 March 1822 – 5 April 1900) was a French mathematician who worked in the fields of number theory, differential geometry, probability theory, economics and thermodynamics. Biography Joseph Bertrand was the son of physician Alexandre Jacques François Bertrand and the brother of archaeologist Alexandre Bertrand. His father died when Joseph was only nine years old, but that did not stand in his way of learning and understanding algebraic and elementary geometric concepts, and he also could speak Latin fluently, all when he was of the same age of nine. At eleven years old he attended the course of the École Polytechnique as an auditor (open courses). From age eleven to seventeen, he obtained two bachelor's degrees, a license and a PhD with a thesis on the mathematical theory of electricity and is admitted first to the 1839 entrance examination of the École Polytechnique. Bertrand was a professor at the École Polytechnique and Collège ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Kolmogorov Axioms
The Kolmogorov axioms are the foundations of probability theory introduced by Russian mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov in 1933. These axioms remain central and have direct contributions to mathematics, the physical sciences, and real-world probability cases. An alternative approach to formalising probability, favoured by some Bayesians, is given by Cox's theorem. Axioms The assumptions as to setting up the axioms can be summarised as follows: Let (\Omega, F, P) be a measure space with P(E) being the probability of some event E'','' and P(\Omega) = 1. Then (\Omega, F, P) is a probability space, with sample space \Omega, event space F and probability measure P. First axiom The probability of an event is a non-negative real number: :P(E)\in\mathbb, P(E)\geq 0 \qquad \forall E \in F where F is the event space. It follows that P(E) is always finite, in contrast with more general measure theory. Theories which assign negative probability relax the first axiom. Second axiom Thi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes Rule
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the population as a whole. One of the many applications of Bayes' theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference. When applied, the probabilities involved in the theorem may have different probability interpretations. With Bayesian probability interpretation, the theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is fundamental to Bayesia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Boy Or Girl Paradox
The Boy or Girl paradox surrounds a set of questions in probability theory, which are also known as The Two Child Problem, Mr. Smith's Children and the Mrs. Smith Problem. The initial formulation of the question dates back to at least 1959, when Martin Gardner featured it in his October 1959 " Mathematical Games column" in ''Scientific American''. He titled it The Two Children Problem, and phrased the paradox as follows: *Mr. Jones has two children. The older child is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls? *Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys? Gardner initially gave the answers and , respectively, but later acknowledged that the second question was ambiguous. Its answer could be , depending on the procedure by which the information "at least one of them is a boy" was obtained. The ambiguity, depending on the exact wording and possible assumptions, was confirmed by Maya Bar-Hi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show ''Let's Make a Deal'' and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the ''American Statistician'' in 1975. It became famous as a question from reader Craig F. Whitaker's letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in '' Parade'' magazine in 1990: Vos Savant's response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. Under the standard assumptions, the switching strategy has a probability of winning the car, while the strategy that remains with the initial choice has only a probability. When the player first makes their choice, there is a chance that the car is behind one of the doors not chosen. This probability does not change after the host reveals a goat behind one of the unchosen doors. When the host provides information about the 2 unchosen ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Two Envelopes Problem
The two envelopes problem, also known as the exchange paradox, is a paradox in probability theory. It is of special interest in decision theory, and for the Bayesian interpretation of probability theory. It is a variant of an older problem known as the necktie paradox. The problem is typically introduced by formulating a hypothetical challenge like the following example: Since the situation is symmetric, it seems obvious that there is no point in switching envelopes. On the other hand, a simple calculation using expected values suggests the opposite conclusion, that it is always beneficial to swap envelopes, since the person stands to gain twice as much money if they switch, while the only risk is halving what they currently have. Introduction Problem Basic setup: A person is given two indistinguishable envelopes, each of which contains a sum of money. One envelope contains twice as much as the other. The person may pick one envelope and keep whatever amount it contains. They ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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