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Base Rate Fallacy
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case). For example, if someone hears that a friend is very shy and quiet, they might think the friend is more likely to be a librarian than a salesperson. However, there are far more salespeople than librarians overall—hence making it more likely that their friend is actually a salesperson, even if a greater proportion of librarians fit the description of being shy and quiet. Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect. It is also called the prosecutor's fallacy or defense attorney's fallacy when applied to the results of statistical tests (such as DNA tests) in the context of law proceedings. These terms were introduced by William C. Thompson and Edward Schumann in 1987, although it has been arg ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prior Probability
A prior probability distribution of an uncertain quantity, simply called the prior, is its assumed probability distribution before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. In Bayesian statistics, Bayes' rule prescribes how to update the prior with new information to obtain the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given new data. Historically, the choice of priors was often constrained to a conjugate family of a given likelihood function, so that it would result in a tractable posterior of the same family. The widespread availability of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, however, has made this less of a concern. There are many ways to const ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Gerd Gigerenzer
Gerd Gigerenzer (; born 3 September 1947) is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making. Gigerenzer is director emeritus of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam, and vice president of the European Research Council (ERC). Gigerenzer investigates how humans make inferences about their world with limited time and knowledge. He proposes that, in an uncertain world, probability theory is not sufficient; people also use smart heuristics, that is, rules of thumb. He conceptualizes rational decisions in terms of the ''adaptive toolbox'' (the repertoire of heuristics an individual or institution has) and the ability to choose a good heuristics for the task at hand. A heuristic is called ecologically rational to the degree that it is adapted to the structure of an environment. Gige ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
OJ Simpson Case Frequency Tree
OJ may refer to: * Orange juice People In American football * O. J. Simpson (1947–2024), American football player, broadcaster, actor, and convicted felon * Ottis Jerome "O.J." Anderson (born 1957), American football player * O. J. Childress (born 1976), American football player * OJ Frederique Jr., American football player * O. J. Howard (born 1994), American football player * O. J. McDuffie (born 1969), American football player In other sports * O. J. Mayo (born 1987), American professional basketball player * Olivier Jacque (born 1973), French motorcycle road racer * Olli Jokinen (born 1978), Finnish ice hockey player * Orlando Jordan (born 1974), American professional wrestler * Omar 'OJ' Koroma (born 1989), Gambian footballer * OJ Porteria (born 1994), Filipino footballer * In music * OJ da Juiceman (born 1981), American rapper * Oran "Juice" Jones (born 1959), American soul and R&B singer and actor * Orlando Julius (born 1943), Nigerian musician somet ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prior Odds
A prior probability distribution of an uncertain quantity, simply called the prior, is its assumed probability distribution before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. In Bayesian statistics, Bayes' rule prescribes how to update the prior with new information to obtain the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given new data. Historically, the choice of priors was often constrained to a conjugate family of a given likelihood function, so that it would result in a tractable posterior of the same family. The widespread availability of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, however, has made this less of a concern. There are many ways to construct ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forensic Evidence
Forensic identification is the application of forensic science, or "forensics", and technology to identify specific objects from the trace evidence they leave, often at a crime scene or the scene of an accident. Forensic means "for the courts". Human identification People can be identified by their fingerprints. This assertion is supported by the philosophy of Dermal papillae, friction ridge identification, which states that friction ridge identification is established through the agreement of friction ridge formations, in sequence, having sufficient uniqueness to individualize. Friction ridge identification is also governed by four premises or statements of facts: # Friction ridges develop on the fetus in their definitive form prior to birth. # Friction ridges are persistent throughout life except for permanent scarring, disease, or decomposition after death. # Friction ridge paths and the details in small areas of friction ridges are unique and never repeated. # Overall, fricti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Annual Review Of Statistics And Its Application
The ''Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application'' is a peer-reviewed scientific journal published by Annual Reviews. It releases an annual volume of review articles relevant to the field of statistics. It has been in publication since 2014. The editor is Nancy Reid. As of 2023, ''Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application'' is being published as open access, under the Subscribe to Open model. As of 2024, ''Journal Citation Reports'' gives the journal a 2023 impact factor of 7.4, ranking it second of 168 journal titles in the category "Statistics and Probability" and third of 135 titles in "Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications". History The ''Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application'' was first published in 2014 by nonprofit publisher Annual Reviews. Its founding editor was Stephen E. Fienberg. Following Fienberg's death in 2016, associate editor Nancy Reid completed the 2017 volume, of which Feinberg is credited as editor. Reid is credited as editor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Burden Of Proof (law)
In a legal dispute, one party has the burden of proof to show that they are correct, while the other party has no such burden and is presumed to be correct. The burden of proof requires a party to produce evidence to establish the truth of facts needed to satisfy all the required legal elements of the dispute. It is also known as the onus of proof. The burden of proof is usually on the person who brings a claim in a dispute. It is often associated with the Latin maxim ''semper necessitas probandi incumbit ei qui agit'', a translation of which is: "the necessity of proof always lies with the person who lays charges." In civil suits, for example, the plaintiff bears the burden of proof that the defendant's action or inaction caused injury to the plaintiff, and the defendant bears the burden of proving an affirmative defense. The burden of proof is on the prosecutor for criminal cases, and the defendant is presumed innocent. If the claimant fails to discharge the burden of proof to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sensitivity And Specificity
In medicine and statistics, sensitivity and specificity mathematically describe the accuracy of a test that reports the presence or absence of a medical condition. If individuals who have the condition are considered "positive" and those who do not are considered "negative", then sensitivity is a measure of how well a test can identify true positives and specificity is a measure of how well a test can identify true negatives: * Sensitivity (true positive rate) is the probability of a positive test result, conditioned on the individual truly being positive. * Specificity (true negative rate) is the probability of a negative test result, conditioned on the individual truly being negative. If the true status of the condition cannot be known, sensitivity and specificity can be defined relative to a " gold standard test" which is assumed correct. For all testing, both diagnoses and screening, there is usually a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, such that higher sensiti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cato Institute
The Cato Institute is an American libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1977 by Ed Crane, Murray Rothbard, and Charles Koch, chairman of the board and chief executive officer of Koch Industries.Koch Industries is the second largest privately held company by revenue in the United States. Cato was established to focus on public advocacy, media exposure, and societal influence. Cato advocates for a limited governmental role in domestic and foreign affairs and strong protection of civil liberties, including support for lowering or abolishing most taxes, opposition to the Federal Reserve system and the Affordable Care Act, the privatization of numerous government agencies and programs including Social Security and the United States Postal Service, demilitarization of the police, open borders and adhering to a non-interventionist foreign policy. According to the 2019 Global ''Go to Think Tank Index Report'' (revised June 2020, Thin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Data Mining
Data mining is the process of extracting and finding patterns in massive data sets involving methods at the intersection of machine learning, statistics, and database systems. Data mining is an interdisciplinary subfield of computer science and statistics with an overall goal of extracting information (with intelligent methods) from a data set and transforming the information into a comprehensible structure for further use. Data mining is the analysis step of the " knowledge discovery in databases" process, or KDD. Aside from the raw analysis step, it also involves database and data management aspects, data pre-processing, model and inference considerations, interestingness metrics, complexity considerations, post-processing of discovered structures, visualization, and online updating. The term "data mining" is a misnomer because the goal is the extraction of patterns and knowledge from large amounts of data, not the extraction (''mining'') of data itself. It also is a buzzwo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Facial Recognition Software
A facial recognition system is a technology potentially capable of matching a human face from a digital image or a video frame against a database of faces. Such a system is typically employed to authenticate users through ID verification services, and works by pinpointing and measuring facial features from a given image. Development began on similar systems in the 1960s, beginning as a form of computer application. Since their inception, facial recognition systems have seen wider uses in recent times on smartphones and in other forms of technology, such as robotics. Because computerized facial recognition involves the measurement of a human's physiological characteristics, facial recognition systems are categorized as biometrics. Although the accuracy of facial recognition systems as a biometric technology is lower than iris recognition, fingerprint image acquisition, palm recognition or voice recognition, it is widely adopted due to its contactless process. Facial recogni ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
