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Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
In econometrics, the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is a statistical model for time series data that describes the variance of the current error term or innovation as a function of the actual sizes of the previous time periods' error terms; often the variance is related to the squares of the previous innovations. The ARCH model is appropriate when the error variance in a time series follows an autoregressive (AR) model; if an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. ARCH models are commonly employed in modeling financial time series that exhibit time-varying volatility and volatility clustering, i.e. periods of swings interspersed with periods of relative calm. ARCH-type models are sometimes considered to be in the family of stochastic volatility models, although this is strictly incorrect since at time ''t'' the volatility is ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Econometrics
Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics," '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8–22 Reprinted in J. Eatwell ''et al.'', eds. (1990). ''Econometrics: The New Palgrave''p. 1 p. 1–34Abstract ( 2008 revision by J. Geweke, J. Horowitz, and H. P. Pesaran). More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships". Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics. The other, Ragnar Frisch, also coined the term in the sense in which it is used today. A basic tool for econometrics is the multiple linear regression model. ''Econometri ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lagrange Multiplier Test
In statistics, the score test assesses constraints on statistical parameters based on the gradient of the likelihood function—known as the ''score''—evaluated at the hypothesized parameter value under the null hypothesis. Intuitively, if the restricted estimator is near the maximum of the likelihood function, the score should not differ from zero by more than sampling error. While the finite sample distributions of score tests are generally unknown, they have an asymptotic χ2-distribution under the null hypothesis as first proved by C. R. Rao in 1948, a fact that can be used to determine statistical significance. Since function maximization subject to equality constraints is most conveniently done using a Lagrangean expression of the problem, the score test can be equivalently understood as a test of the magnitude of the Lagrange multipliers associated with the constraints where, again, if the constraints are non-binding at the maximum likelihood, the vector of Lagrange m ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Claudia Klüppelberg
Claudia Klüppelberg is a German mathematical statistician and applied probability theorist, known for her work in risk assessment and statistical finance. She is a professor emerita of mathematical statistics at the Technical University of Munich. Education and career Klüppelberg completed a doctorate in 1987 at the University of Mannheim. Her dissertation, ''Subexponentielle Verteilungen und Charakterisierungen verwandter Klassen'', was jointly supervised by Horand Störmer and Paul Embrechts. She earned her habilitation in 1993 at ETH Zurich. Then, she became a professor of applied statistics at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, and moved to the Technical University of Munich in 1997. She retired to become a professor emerita in 2019. Books Klüppelberg is the co-author of *''Modelling Extremal Events: for Insurance and Finance'' (with Paul Embrechts and Thomas Mikosch, Springer, 1997) She is the co-editor of *''Complex Stochastic Systems'' (edited with Ole Barndo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Generalized Error Distribution
The generalized normal distribution or generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) is either of two families of parametric continuous probability distributions on the real line. Both families add a shape parameter to the normal distribution. To distinguish the two families, they are referred to below as "symmetric" and "asymmetric"; however, this is not a standard nomenclature. Symmetric version The symmetric generalized normal distribution, also known as the exponential power distribution or the generalized error distribution, is a parametric family of symmetric distributions. It includes all normal and Laplace distributions, and as limiting cases it includes all continuous uniform distributions on bounded intervals of the real line. This family includes the normal distribution when \textstyle\beta=2 (with mean \textstyle\mu and variance \textstyle \frac) and it includes the Laplace distribution when \textstyle\beta=1. As \textstyle\beta\rightarrow\infty, the density converg ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Standard Normal Variable
A standard normal deviate is a normally distributed deviate. It is a realization of a standard normal random variable, defined as a random variable with expected value 0 and variance 1.Dodge, Y. (2003) The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms. OUP. Where collections of such random variables are used, there is often an associated (possibly unstated) assumption that members of such collections are statistically independent. Standard normal variables play a major role in theoretical statistics in the description of many types of models, particularly in regression analysis, the analysis of variance and time series analysis. When the term "deviate" is used, rather than "variable", there is a connotation that the value concerned is treated as the no-longer-random outcome of a standard normal random variable. The terminology here is the same as that for random variable and random variate. Standard normal deviates arise in practical statistics in two ways. :*Given a model f ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Unit Root
In probability theory and statistics, a unit root is a feature of some stochastic processes (such as random walks) that can cause problems in statistical inference involving time series models. A linear stochastic process has a unit root if 1 is a root of the process's characteristic equation. Such a process is non-stationary but does not always have a trend. If the other roots of the characteristic equation lie inside the unit circle—that is, have a modulus (absolute value) less than one—then the first difference of the process will be stationary; otherwise, the process will need to be differenced multiple times to become stationary. If there are ''d'' unit roots, the process will have to be differenced ''d'' times in order to make it stationary. Due to this characteristic, unit root processes are also called difference stationary. Unit root processes may sometimes be confused with trend-stationary processes; while they share many properties, they are different in many as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conditional Variance
In probability theory and statistics, a conditional variance is the variance of a random variable given the value(s) of one or more other variables. Particularly in econometrics, the conditional variance is also known as the scedastic function or skedastic function. Conditional variances are important parts of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. Definition The conditional variance of a random variable ''Y'' given another random variable ''X'' is :\operatorname(Y, X) = \operatorname\Big(\big(Y - \operatorname(Y\mid X)\big)^\mid X\Big). The conditional variance tells us how much variance is left if we use \operatorname(Y\mid X) to "predict" ''Y''. Here, as usual, \operatorname(Y\mid X) stands for the conditional expectation of ''Y'' given ''X'', which we may recall, is a random variable itself (a function of ''X'', determined up to probability one). As a result, \operatorname(Y, X) itself is a random variable (and is a function of ''X''). Explanation, r ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Q-statistic
The Q-statistic is a test statistic output by either the Box-Pierce test or, in a modified version which provides better small sample properties, by the Ljung-Box test. It follows the chi-squared distribution. See also Portmanteau test. The q statistic or studentized range In statistics, the studentized range, denoted ''q'', is the difference between the largest and smallest data in a sample normalized by the sample standard deviation. It is named after William Sealy Gosset (who wrote under the pseudonym "''Student' ... statistic is a statistic used for multiple significance testing across a number of means: see Tukey–Kramer method. Statistical tests {{statistics-stub de:Q-Statistik ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ljung–Box Test
The Ljung–Box test (named for Greta M. Ljung and George E. P. Box) is a type of statistical test of whether any of a group of autocorrelations of a time series are different from zero. Instead of testing randomness at each distinct lag, it tests the "overall" randomness based on a number of lags, and is therefore a portmanteau test. This test is sometimes known as the Ljung–Box Q test, and it is closely connected to the Box–Pierce test (which is named after George E. P. Box and David A. Pierce). In fact, the Ljung–Box test statistic was described explicitly in the paper that led to the use of the Box–Pierce statistic, and from which that statistic takes its name. The Box–Pierce test statistic is a simplified version of the Ljung–Box statistic for which subsequent simulation studies have shown poor performance. The Ljung–Box test is widely applied in econometrics and other applications of time series analysis. A similar assessment can be also carried out with the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Moving-average Model
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure. The moving-average model should not be confused with the moving average, a distinct concept despite some similarities. Contrary to the AR model, the finite MA model is always stationary. Definition The notation MA(''q'') refers to the moving average model of order ''q'': : X_t = \mu + \varepsilon_t + \theta_1 \varepsilon_ + \cdots + \theta_q \varepsilon_ = \mu + \sum_^q \theta_i \varepsilon_ + \varepsilon_, where \mu is the mean of the series, the \theta_1,...,\theta_q are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
White Test
In statistics, the White test is a statistical test that establishes whether the variance of the errors in a regression model is constant: that is for homoskedasticity. This test, and an estimator for heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors, were proposed by Halbert White in 1980. These methods have become extremely widely used, making this paper one of the most cited articles in economics. In cases where the White test statistic is statistically significant, heteroskedasticity may not necessarily be the cause; instead the problem could be a specification error. In other words, the White test can be a test of heteroskedasticity or specification error or both. If no cross product terms are introduced in the White test procedure, then this is a test of pure heteroskedasticity. If cross products are introduced in the model, then it is a test of both heteroskedasticity and specification bias. Testing constant variance To test for constant variance one undertakes an auxiliar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autoregressive Moving Average Model
In statistics, econometrics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation). Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which consists of a system of more than one interlocking stochastic difference equation in more than one evolving random var ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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